DAL @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
DAL Cowboys
22
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
DAL50%22
SEA50%23
23
SEA Seahawks

Projected Team Stats

DAL
SEA
50% Win Probability 50%
341 Total Yards 343
245 Passing Yards 251
96 Rushing Yards 92
2.2 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott259 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.1 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens4.1 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold254 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson48 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba7.4 rec, 99 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 1.0

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 1.0-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (23-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Caleb Downs (Cowboys) - winner: Caleb Downs, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 60% of routes for 10.0/12.0, 91 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Ernest Jones (Seahawks) - winner: Ernest Jones, holding him to 21 yds on just 40% open, 0.1 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys' quarterback should have time; the Seahawks win just 50% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, with DeMarcus Lawrence (1.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Seahawks' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 49% of reps for 4.8 sacks a game, Rashan Gary (3.0 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Look for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eat: 10.0 catches and 91 yds a game for the Seahawks.
  • The Cowboys will live and die with CeeDee Lamb, who comes open 53% of the time (57 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Julian Love (Seahawks) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks' run game leans on Emanuel Wilson — 15 carries, 48 yds a game (3.2 a carry), finding room to the right side into a stout front.
  • Javonte Williams is the workhorse for the Cowboys, churning 56 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

SEA by 1.0 (50% to win) Projected total 45 pts Dak Prescott ~259 pass yds (250+ 52%) Javonte Williams ~56 rush yds (70+ 32%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~99 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 72%)