DAL @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 6 slate
DAL Cowboys
25
PROJECTION
DAL 0 – GB 17
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
DAL50%25 0
GB50%24 17
24
GB Packers
✗ RESULT GB by 17 model DAL by 1.3, off by 18.3
✗ SPREAD DAL +1 LOSS line at publish GB -1
✓ TOTAL 17 pts UNDER O/U 52.5, model 49 lean under

Projected Team Stats

DAL
GB
50% Win Probability 50%
378 Total Yards 356
271 Passing Yards 317
107 Rushing Yards 38
1.4 Sacks 2.2
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

DAL
PASS Dak Prescott282 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.8 rec, 61 yds, 0.5 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love321 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd12 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.9 rec, 105 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Matthew Golden4.9 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 1.3

Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 1.3 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Ameer Speed (Cowboys) - winner: Ameer Speed, holding him to 1.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Lukas Van Ness (Packers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Lukas Van Ness, winning 58% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Isaiah McDuffie (Packers) - winner: Javonte Williams, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Keisean Nixon (Packers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 60% of routes for 8.1/10.6, 72 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 51% of reps for 3.1 sacks a game, led by Rashan Gary (2.7 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Packers — a 51% win rate, 5.3 sacks and 21.0 pressures a game, and Lukas Van Ness (2.7 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Look for CeeDee Lamb to eat: 8.1 catches and 72 yds a game for the Cowboys.
  • The Packers' aerial attack runs through Christian Watson (85 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • Javon Bullard (Packers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 36% of his coverage snaps with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys hand it to Javonte Williams early and often, 12 carries for 59 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • MarShawn Lloyd is the workhorse for the Packers, churning 12 yds a game at 1.2 a carry against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -1.3
Market lineGB -1
Sim total49
Market total52.5
DAL by 1.3 (50% to win) Projected total 49 pts Jordan Love ~321 pass yds (250+ 88%) Javonte Williams ~59 rush yds (70+ 34%) Christian Watson ~105 rec yds, 6.9 rec (70+ 74%)