CLV @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
14
PROJECTION
CLV 23 – TB 19
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CLV24%14 23
TB76%21 19
21
TB Buccaneers
✗ RESULT CLV by 4 model TB by 6.4, off by 10.4
✓ SPREAD CLV +8 WIN line at publish TB -8
✗ TOTAL 42 pts OVER O/U 41, model 35 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CLV
TB
24% Win Probability 76%
243 Total Yards 286
153 Passing Yards 198
90 Rushing Yards 88
2.0 Sacks 3.2
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson176 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins53 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.9 rec, 45 yds
REC KC Concepcion3.3 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield207 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.4 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.3 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Buccaneers by 6.4

Buccaneers are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 76% of 50 sims (projected 21-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Jacob Parrish, holding him to 24 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) - winner: Ronnie Hickman Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), Yaya Diaby (3.1 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 49% win rate, 4.1 sacks and 24.5 pressures a game — Jared Verse (1.7 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Buccaneers to feed Emeka Egbuka: 4.8 catches for 42 yds a game, open 50% of the time.
  • Jerry Jeudy is the go-to for the Browns, separating on 37% of routes for 24 yds a game.
  • Ronnie Hickman Jr. (Browns) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 42% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Buccaneers' run game leans on Bucky Irving — 11 carries, 36 yds a game (3.2 a carry), with his best work to the right side into a stout front.
  • The Browns' run game leans on Quinshon Judkins — 13 carries, 53 yds a game (3.9 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineTB -6.4
Market lineTB -8
Sim total35
Market total41
TB by 6.4 (76% to win) Projected total 35 pts Baker Mayfield ~207 pass yds (250+ 18%) Quinshon Judkins ~53 rush yds (70+ 22%) Emeka Egbuka ~65 rec yds, 4.4 rec (70+ 36%)