CLV @ NYJ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
11
PROJECTION
CLV 12 – NYJ 17
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CLV22%11 12
NYJ78%20 17
20
NYJ Jets
✓ RESULT NYJ by 5 model NYJ by 9.2, off by 4.2
✓ VALUE NYJ -2.5 WIN line at publish NYJ -2.5
✓ TOTAL 29 pts UNDER O/U 40, model 30 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CLV
NYJ
22% Win Probability 78%
218 Total Yards 278
168 Passing Yards 191
50 Rushing Yards 88
2.4 Sacks 2.4
1.3 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson186 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins27 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston4.8 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.3 rec, 33 yds
NYJ
PASS Geno Smith197 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Garrett Wilson4.9 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Adonai Mitchell2.7 rec, 34 yds, 0.2 TD

Jets by 9.2

Run it 50 times and Jets win 78% of them, by 9.2 on average (20-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (Jets) - winner: Jarvis Brownlee Jr., holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Jets — a 50% win rate, 5.1 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game (Kingsley Enagbare (2.1 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.5 sacks a game), led by Jared Verse (1.8 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Jets lean on Garrett Wilson, good for 5.8 catches and 52 yds a game while breaking open on 48% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Denzel Boston's show for the Browns: 46 yds a game, open on 53% of routes.
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 42% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Breece Hall carries the load for the Jets, 14 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 13 carries, 27 yds a game (2.1 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYJ -9.2
Market lineNYJ -2.5
Sim total30
Market total40
NYJ by 9.2 (78% to win) Projected total 30 pts Geno Smith ~197 pass yds (250+ 14%) Breece Hall ~56 rush yds (70+ 22%) Denzel Boston ~71 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 42%)