CLV @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CLV Browns
16
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CLV32%16
CIN68%24
24
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

CLV
CIN
32% Win Probability 68%
278 Total Yards 333
201 Passing Yards 289
77 Rushing Yards 44
1.6 Sacks 3.3
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson226 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.5 rec, 80 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Harold Fannin Jr.3.5 rec, 37 yds, 0.3 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow283 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Chase Brown26 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD

Bengals by 7.7

The model leans Bengals by 7.7, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 24-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Tacario Davis, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Maliek Collins (Browns) vs Ted Karras (Bengals) - winner: Maliek Collins, winning 56% of reps for 2.3 sacks and 0.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 60% of routes for 6.0/7.1, 52 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 50% win rate yields only 5.9 sacks and 27.6 pressures a game, with Myles Murphy (2.3 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bengals' line should hold up: the Browns win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.3 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game — Maliek Collins (2.3 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the engine of the Bengals' passing game — 75 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Look for Denzel Boston to eat: 5.6 catches and 55 yds a game for the Browns.
  • In coverage, Bryan Cook (Bengals) travels and erases — only 42% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 10 carries, 26 yds a game (2.5 a carry) into a stout front.
  • On the ground, the Browns ride Quinshon Judkins: 12 carries, 36 yds a game (3.0 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

CIN by 7.7 (68% to win) Projected total 40 pts Joe Burrow ~283 pass yds (250+ 68%) Ja'Marr Chase ~82 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 60%)