CIN @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
CIN Bengals
25
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN78%25
WAS22%16
16
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

CIN
WAS
78% Win Probability 22%
370 Total Yards 290
308 Passing Yards 176
62 Rushing Yards 114
3.8 Sacks 1.7
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow294 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Chase Brown36 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.5 rec, 97 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels202 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt58 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.1 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD

Bengals by 9.1

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 78% of them, by 9.1 on average (25-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Lucas Patrick (Commanders) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 55% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Fabian Moreau (Commanders) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 63% of routes for 5.2/7.1, 52 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 58% of routes for 9.0/11.7, 79 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 51% win rate yields only 7.2 sacks and 28.2 pressures a game, Myles Murphy (2.7 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.6 sacks a game (Odafe Oweh (3.1 sacks, 4.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase should find soft spots all day, open 58% of the time for 79 yds a game.
  • Terry McLaurin headlines the Commanders' receiving corps — 5.0 catches for 45 yds a game on 51% separation.
  • Few balls get past Bryan Cook (Bengals), who yields separation on 44% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 12 carries, 36 yds a game (3.1 a carry) into a stout front.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt carries the load for the Commanders, 14 carries for 58 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

CIN by 9.1 (78% to win) Projected total 41 pts Joe Burrow ~294 pass yds (250+ 84%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~58 rush yds (70+ 28%) Ja'Marr Chase ~97 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 70%)