CIN @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 16 slate
CIN Bengals
29
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN68%29
IND32%23
23
IND Colts

Projected Team Stats

CIN
IND
68% Win Probability 32%
414 Total Yards 358
338 Passing Yards 252
77 Rushing Yards 106
1.5 Sacks 1.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow331 pass yds, 2.5 TD
RUSH Chase Brown47 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.4 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones262 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor68 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Josh Downs5.6 rec, 68 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 5.9

The model leans Bengals by 5.9, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 29-23).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Tanor Bortolini (Colts) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 56% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Sauce Gardner (Colts) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 61% of routes for 5.9/7.8, 65 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Josh Downs (Colts) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Josh Downs, open on 59% of routes for 7.2/9.3, 58 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.5 sacks a game — Myles Murphy (0.8 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Bengals' quarterback should have time; the Colts win just 51% of reps for 3.1 sacks a game, with Adetomiwa Adebawore (2.3 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 58% of routes for 91 yds a game.
  • Josh Downs is the go-to for the Colts, separating on 59% of routes for 58 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past DJ Turner II (Bengals), who yields separation on 39% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals' run game leans on Chase Brown — 11 carries, 47 yds a game (4.2 a carry), churning off the right edge.
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 15 carries for 68 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

CIN by 5.9 (68% to win) Projected total 53 pts Joe Burrow ~331 pass yds (250+ 86%) Jonathan Taylor ~68 rush yds (70+ 48%) Ja'Marr Chase ~106 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 80%)