CIN @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
CIN Bengals
24
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CIN78%24
CLV22%15
15
CLV Browns

Projected Team Stats

CIN
CLV
78% Win Probability 22%
340 Total Yards 275
292 Passing Yards 193
48 Rushing Yards 81
3.5 Sacks 1.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

CIN
PASS Joe Burrow287 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Chase Brown31 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 88 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.6 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson215 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.2 rec, 84 yds, 0.3 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.6 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD

Bengals by 8.2

Across 50 simulations, Bengals come out on top 78% of the time by an average of 8.2 (24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Quincy Williams (Browns) - winner: Quincy Williams, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Tyson Campbell (Browns) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 60% of routes for 5.0/6.5, 50 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 50% win rate, 6.2 sacks and 26.3 pressures a game (Boye Mafe (2.6 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Browns get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.2 sacks a game), Maliek Collins (2.2 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 53% of routes for 65 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Denzel Boston's show for the Browns: 64 yds a game, open on 51% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Bryan Cook (Bengals): 42% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Chase Brown: 31 yds a game at 2.9 a carry for the Bengals.
  • Quinshon Judkins sets the tempo for the Browns — 36 yds a game on the ground at 3.2 a carry, finding room off the right edge into a stout front.

Model vs Market

CIN by 8.2 (78% to win) Projected total 39 pts Joe Burrow ~287 pass yds (250+ 74%) Ja'Marr Chase ~88 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 64%)