CHI @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CHI Bears
22
PROJECTION
CHI 7 – GB 31
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CHI52%22 7
GB48%21 31
21
GB Packers
✗ RESULT GB by 24 model CHI by 1.1, off by 25.1
✓ SPREAD GB +2.5 WIN line at publish CHI -2.5
✓ TOTAL 38 pts UNDER O/U 45.5, model 43 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CHI
GB
52% Win Probability 48%
365 Total Yards 340
234 Passing Yards 266
131 Rushing Yards 73
2.0 Sacks 2.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

CHI
PASS Caleb Williams244 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift57 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.6 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Luther Burden III4.0 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
GB
PASS Jordan Love271 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd26 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.4 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.2 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD

Bears by 1.1

Run it 50 times and Bears win 52% of them, by 1.1 on average (22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Montez Sweat (Bears) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Montez Sweat, winning 57% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Devin Bush (Bears) - winner: Devin Bush, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Packers' quarterback should have time; the Bears win just 52% of reps for 4.0 sacks a game, led by Montez Sweat (3.2 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game).
  • The Packers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game — Lukas Van Ness (3.1 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Rome Odunze's show for the Bears: 58 yds a game, open on 53% of routes.
  • Christian Watson is the go-to for the Packers, separating on 54% of routes for 68 yds a game.
  • T.J. Edwards (Bears) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Bears ride D'Andre Swift: 14 carries, 57 yds a game (4.0 a carry), churning off right tackle.
  • MarShawn Lloyd sets the tempo for the Packers — 26 yds a game on the ground at 2.6 a carry, churning to the right side into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -1.1
Market lineCHI -2.5
Sim total43
Market total45.5
CHI by 1.1 (52% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jordan Love ~271 pass yds (250+ 58%) D'Andre Swift ~57 rush yds (70+ 28%) Christian Watson ~86 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 60%)