CAR @ PIT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
17
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CAR42%17
PIT58%20
20
PIT Steelers

Projected Team Stats

CAR
PIT
42% Win Probability 58%
287 Total Yards 353
234 Passing Yards 247
52 Rushing Yards 106
1.7 Sacks 2.1
0.9 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young247 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard28 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.0 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers251 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.5 rec, 79 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Germie Bernard3.9 rec, 42 yds

Steelers by 3.5

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 58% of them, by 3.5 on average (20-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (5.0 sacks a game), Alex Highsmith (1.7 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.4 sacks a game, and Jaelan Phillips (2.7 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers will live and die with D.K. Metcalf, who comes open 45% of the time (52 yds a game).
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 54% of routes for 57 yds a game.
  • Mike Jackson (Panthers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 33% of routes, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Steelers' run game leans on Jaylen Warren — 13 carries, 68 yds a game (5.4 a carry), churning to the right side and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard: 28 yds a game at 2.2 a carry for the Panthers.

Model vs Market

PIT by 3.5 (58% to win) Projected total 37 pts Aaron Rodgers ~251 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jaylen Warren ~68 rush yds (70+ 44%) D.K. Metcalf ~79 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 54%)