CAR @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
20
PROJECTION
CAR 25 – PHI 14
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CAR54%20 25
PHI46%19 14
19
PHI Eagles
✓ RESULT CAR by 11 model CAR by 1.2, off by 9.8
✓ SPREAD CAR +1 WIN line at publish PHI -1
✓ TOTAL 39 pts UNDER O/U 42, model 40 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CAR
PHI
54% Win Probability 46%
319 Total Yards 297
240 Passing Yards 209
78 Rushing Yards 89
3.4 Sacks 3.1
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young256 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard40 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 86 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.4 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts232 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.3 TD

Panthers by 1.2

The sim sides with Panthers: a 1.2-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.7 sacks and 27.3 pressures a game (Jaelan Phillips (3.9 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Eagles — a 52% win rate yields only 6.4 sacks and 28.7 pressures a game, with Jonathan Greenard (3.8 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Panthers' aerial attack runs through Tetairoa McMillan (62 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • The Eagles' aerial attack runs through DeVonta Smith (62 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • Devin Lloyd (Panthers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 36% of his coverage snaps with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse for the Panthers, churning 40 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, doing his damage to the right side against a stingy front.
  • Expect a steady diet of Saquon Barkley: 45 yds a game at 4.3 a carry for the Eagles, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -1.2
Market linePHI -1
Sim total40
Market total42
CAR by 1.2 (54% to win) Projected total 40 pts Bryce Young ~256 pass yds (250+ 54%) Tetairoa McMillan ~86 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 68%)