CAR @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
25
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CAR64%25
NO36%21
21
NO Saints

Projected Team Stats

CAR
NO
64% Win Probability 36%
385 Total Yards 345
299 Passing Yards 280
86 Rushing Yards 65
2.1 Sacks 2.3
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young305 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard44 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan7.0 rec, 104 yds, 0.8 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough294 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara27 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Olave7.4 rec, 106 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Devaughn Vele3.9 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD

Panthers by 3.2

Run it 50 times and Panthers win 64% of them, by 3.2 on average (25-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Akayleb Evans (Panthers) - winner: Akayleb Evans, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 63% of routes for 8.4/11.5, 86 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 60% of routes for 10.1/12.2, 96 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Jaelan Phillips (3.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game).
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Carl Granderson (1.7 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan headlines the Panthers' receiving corps — 8.4 catches for 86 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • Expect the Saints to feed Chris Olave: 10.1 catches for 96 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Devin Lloyd (Panthers): 38% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers lean on Chuba Hubbard, 13 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • The Saints lean on Alvin Kamara, 10 carries for 27 yds a game at 2.8 a carry.

Model vs Market

CAR by 3.2 (64% to win) Projected total 46 pts Bryce Young ~305 pass yds (250+ 86%) Chris Olave ~106 rec yds, 7.4 rec (70+ 86%)