CAR @ MIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 13 slate
CAR Panthers
20
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
CAR54%20
MIN46%20
20
MIN Vikings

Projected Team Stats

CAR
MIN
54% Win Probability 46%
324 Total Yards 285
251 Passing Yards 194
73 Rushing Yards 92
3.0 Sacks 3.1
1.0 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young268 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard37 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.3 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
MIN
PASS Kyler Murray210 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Aaron Jones46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Justin Jefferson4.9 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jordan Addison3.2 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Panthers by 0.2

The sim sides with Panthers: a 0.2-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (20-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Blake Cashman (Vikings) - winner: Blake Cashman, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Vikings' line should hold up: the Panthers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.3 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game, and Jaelan Phillips (3.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Panthers' quarterback should have time; the Vikings win just 51% of reps for 6.2 sacks a game, led by Dallas Turner (3.7 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the engine of the Panthers' passing game — 62 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • Look for Justin Jefferson to eat: 5.8 catches and 56 yds a game for the Vikings.
  • Isaiah Rodgers (Vikings) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 37% of his coverage snaps with 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chuba Hubbard is the workhorse for the Panthers, churning 37 yds a game at 3.1 a carry, churning off the right edge against a stingy front.
  • The Vikings lean on Aaron Jones, 12 carries for 46 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

CAR by 0.2 (54% to win) Projected total 40 pts Bryce Young ~268 pass yds (250+ 60%) Aaron Jones ~46 rush yds (70+ 10%) Tetairoa McMillan ~88 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 66%)