CAR @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
19
PROJECTION
CAR 18 – CLV 21
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CAR74%19 18
CLV26%11 21
11
CLV Browns
✗ RESULT CLV by 3 model CAR by 8.3, off by 11.3
✗ SPREAD CAR -3 LOSS line at publish CAR -3
✓ TOTAL 39 pts UNDER O/U 41.5, model 30 lean under

Projected Team Stats

CAR
CLV
74% Win Probability 26%
300 Total Yards 222
224 Passing Yards 156
75 Rushing Yards 67
3.3 Sacks 2.4
0.9 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young230 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard38 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.4 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.0 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson179 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.5 rec, 31 yds

Panthers by 8.3

Run it 50 times and Panthers win 74% of them, by 8.3 on average (19-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Tre'von Moehrig, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Myles Harden (Browns) - winner: Myles Harden, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
In the Trenches
  • The Browns' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 49% of reps for 5.9 sacks a game, led by Jaelan Phillips (3.9 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 49% win rate, 5.0 sacks and 23.4 pressures a game (Jared Verse (3.0 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 54% of routes for 58 yds a game.
  • The Browns lean on Denzel Boston, good for 5.6 catches and 49 yds a game while breaking open on 43% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Mike Jackson (Panthers), who yields separation on 37% of routes, adding 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chuba Hubbard sets the tempo for the Panthers — 38 yds a game on the ground at 3.2 a carry into a stout front.
  • The Browns lean on Quinshon Judkins, 12 carries for 36 yds a game at 3.0 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -8.3
Market lineCAR -3
Sim total30
Market total41.5
CAR by 8.3 (74% to win) Projected total 30 pts Bryce Young ~230 pass yds (250+ 36%) Tetairoa McMillan ~80 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 66%)