CAR @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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CAR Panthers
18
PROJECTION
CAR 34 – ATL 3
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
CAR18%18 34
ATL82%27 3
27
ATL Falcons
✗ RESULT CAR by 31 model ATL by 8.9, off by 39.9
✗ BEST BET ATL +1 LOSS line at publish CAR -1
• TOTAL 37 pts UNDER O/U 44, model 44

Projected Team Stats

CAR
ATL
18% Win Probability 82%
312 Total Yards 358
231 Passing Yards 205
81 Rushing Yards 153
1.7 Sacks 2.6
1.4 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

CAR
PASS Bryce Young251 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard42 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.5 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.203 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson98 rush yds, 1.1 TD
REC Drake London6.4 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.0 rec, 35 yds, 0.3 TD

Falcons by 8.9

The model leans Falcons by 8.9, winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 27-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.2 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Jaycee Horn, holding him to 22 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Mike Hughes (Falcons) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 60% of routes for 6.6/9.8, 58 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.9 sacks a game, and Za'Darius Smith (2.1 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Falcons' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 50% of reps for 4.2 sacks a game, Jaelan Phillips (2.9 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Drake London is the go-to for the Falcons, separating on 50% of routes for 55 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Tetairoa McMillan's show for the Panthers: 58 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • On the back end, Divine Deablo (Falcons) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 38% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bijan Robinson: 98 yds a game at 6.2 a carry for the Falcons, finding room off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Panthers ride Chuba Hubbard: 13 carries, 42 yds a game (3.3 a carry).

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -8.9
Market lineCAR -1
Sim total44
Market total44
ATL by 8.9 (82% to win) Projected total 44 pts Bryce Young ~251 pass yds (250+ 40%) Bijan Robinson ~98 rush yds (70+ 70%) Drake London ~84 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 54%)