BUF @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 13 slate
BUF Bills
20
PROJECTION
Week 13 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF34%20
NE66%27
27
NE Patriots

Projected Team Stats

BUF
NE
34% Win Probability 66%
317 Total Yards 388
183 Passing Yards 256
134 Rushing Yards 132
1.9 Sacks 3.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen206 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH James Cook64 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.5 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye249 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson63 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.4 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.6 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Patriots by 6.8

The sim sides with Patriots: a 6.8-point edge and a 66% win rate over 50 runs (27-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 43 yds on just 39% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Craig Woodson (Patriots) - winner: James Cook, 4.8 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Romeo Doubs (Patriots) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Romeo Doubs, open on 63% of routes for 5.3/7.4, 56 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 51% of their reps, mustering 6.1 sacks and 33.6 pressures a game — Dre'Mont Jones (2.2 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Patriots' line should hold up: the Bills win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.2 sacks and 26.6 pressures a game — Greg Rousseau (1.5 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Romeo Doubs to eat: 5.3 catches and 56 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • Through the air it is DJ Moore's show for the Bills: 43 yds a game, open on 39% of routes.
  • On the back end, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 38% of routes, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Rhamondre Stevenson: 63 yds a game at 4.9 a carry for the Patriots, finding room to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Bills ride James Cook: 13 carries, 64 yds a game (4.8 a carry), churning off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

NE by 6.8 (66% to win) Projected total 47 pts Drake Maye ~249 pass yds (250+ 48%) James Cook ~64 rush yds (70+ 36%) DJ Moore ~73 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 50%)