BUF @ MIA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
BUF Bills
25
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF74%25
MIA26%16
16
MIA Dolphins

Projected Team Stats

BUF
MIA
74% Win Probability 26%
371 Total Yards 305
223 Passing Yards 209
147 Rushing Yards 96
2.1 Sacks 2.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen226 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH James Cook71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore6.0 rec, 91 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.2 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
MIA
PASS Malik Willis221 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Ollie Gordon II50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Washington4.2 rec, 59 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Caleb Douglas3.6 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD

Bills by 9.1

Bills are the pick here, favoured by 9.1 and winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 25-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Zayne Anderson (Dolphins) - winner: James Cook, 5.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.0 sacks a game, and Greg Rousseau (1.7 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Dolphins get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.3 sacks a game), led by Joshua Uche (3.2 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 52% of routes for 74 yds a game.
  • Expect the Dolphins to feed Malik Washington: 4.7 catches for 46 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
On the Ground
  • James Cook is the workhorse for the Bills, churning 71 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • On the ground, the Dolphins ride Ollie Gordon II: 12 carries, 50 yds a game (4.2 a carry), finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

BUF by 9.1 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Josh Allen ~226 pass yds (250+ 28%) James Cook ~71 rush yds (70+ 48%) DJ Moore ~91 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 66%)