BUF @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
BUF Bills
25
PROJECTION
BUF 33 – LV 30
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
BUF44%25 33
LV56%28 30
28
LV Raiders
✗ RESULT BUF by 3 model LV by 3.0, off by 6.0
✓ BEST BET LV +6 WIN line at publish BUF -6
• TOTAL 63 pts OVER O/U 53, model 53

Projected Team Stats

BUF
LV
44% Win Probability 56%
374 Total Yards 398
240 Passing Yards 299
134 Rushing Yards 99
1.5 Sacks 2.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen250 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH James Cook67 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DJ Moore6.0 rec, 91 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.1 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins298 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty53 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.3 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Brock Bowers4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.5 TD

Raiders by 3.0

The model leans Raiders by 3.0, winning 56% of 50 sims (projected 28-25).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Jeremy Chinn (Raiders) - winner: James Cook, 5.0 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Spencer Burford (Raiders) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 59% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 1.8 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Tre Tucker, open on 60% of routes for 7.6/10.0, 80 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Tonka Hemingway (Raiders) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: Tonka Hemingway, winning 55% of reps for 0.2 sacks and 2.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Raiders — a 51% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 26.0 pressures a game, led by Maxx Crosby (3.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bills — a 51% win rate yields only 3.0 sacks and 10.8 pressures a game, led by Deone Walker (2.0 sacks, 1.8 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Raiders to feed Tre Tucker: 7.6 catches for 80 yds a game, open 60% of the time.
  • DJ Moore headlines the Bills' receiving corps — 6.9 catches for 73 yds a game on 54% separation.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Ashton Jeanty: 53 yds a game at 3.8 a carry for the Raiders, churning off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Bills ride James Cook: 13 carries, 67 yds a game (5.0 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLV -3.0
Market lineBUF -6
Sim total53
Market total53
LV by 3.0 (56% to win) Projected total 53 pts Kirk Cousins ~298 pass yds (250+ 72%) James Cook ~67 rush yds (70+ 42%) Tre Tucker ~95 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 64%)