BUF @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BUF Bills
15
PROJECTION
BUF 37 – LA 34
Week 5 50-sim average Mon 12 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
BUF8%15 37
LA92%32 34
32
LA Rams
✗ RESULT BUF by 3 model LA by 17.0, off by 20.0
✗ BEST BET LA -3.5 LOSS line at publish LA -3.5
✗ TOTAL 71 pts OVER O/U 54.5, model 47 lean under

Projected Team Stats

BUF
LA
8% Win Probability 92%
259 Total Yards 470
183 Passing Yards 327
76 Rushing Yards 143
2.1 Sacks 3.0
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen205 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH James Cook41 rush yds
REC DJ Moore4.9 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.5 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford304 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams90 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.3 rec, 100 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Davante Adams5.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD

Rams by 17.0

Rams are the pick here, favoured by 17.0 and winning 92% of 50 sims (projected 32-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • DJ Moore (Bills) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 38 yds on just 35% open, 1.0 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Bills) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Aaron Donald (Rams) vs Alec Anderson (Bills) - winner: Aaron Donald, winning 60% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 7.4 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • James Cook (Bills) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 66% of routes for 9.8/11.7, 91 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Rams win just 53% of reps for 5.9 sacks a game, with Byron Young (2.4 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Rams' quarterback should have time; the Bills win just 50% of reps for 4.0 sacks a game, with Greg Rousseau (1.5 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Rams' aerial attack runs through Puka Nacua (91 yds a game, open on 66% of routes).
  • The Bills will live and die with DJ Moore, who comes open 35% of the time (38 yds a game).
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, adding 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams hand it to Kyren Williams early and often, 16 carries for 90 yds a game at 5.6 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • James Cook sets the tempo for the Bills — 41 yds a game on the ground at 3.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -17.0
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total47
Market total54.5
LA by 17.0 (92% to win) Projected total 47 pts Matthew Stafford ~304 pass yds (250+ 78%) Kyren Williams ~90 rush yds (70+ 64%) Puka Nacua ~100 rec yds, 7.3 rec (70+ 80%)