BUF @ GB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
BUF Bills
20
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BUF36%20
GB64%23
23
GB Packers

Projected Team Stats

BUF
GB
36% Win Probability 64%
336 Total Yards 357
197 Passing Yards 313
139 Rushing Yards 44
1.3 Sacks 2.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

BUF
PASS Josh Allen213 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH James Cook67 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC DJ Moore5.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Khalil Shakir3.1 rec, 34 yds
GB
PASS Jordan Love315 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH MarShawn Lloyd15 rush yds
REC Christian Watson6.6 rec, 106 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Matthew Golden5.4 rec, 83 yds, 0.4 TD

Packers by 2.9

The sim sides with Packers: a 2.9-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs Maxwell Hairston (Bills) - winner: Maxwell Hairston, holding him to 1.6 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Christian Watson (Packers) vs Christian Benford (Bills) - winner: Christian Watson, open on 66% of routes for 8.9/11.0, 90 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Matthew Golden (Packers) vs Dee Alford (Bills) - winner: Matthew Golden, open on 66% of routes for 6.3/7.9, 62 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Deone Walker (Bills) vs Aaron Banks (Packers) - winner: Deone Walker, winning 59% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 0.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Greg Rousseau (Bills) vs Anthony Belton (Packers) - winner: Greg Rousseau, winning 56% of reps for 0.5 sacks and 3.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Bills' quarterback should have time; the Packers win just 50% of reps for 5.7 sacks a game, with Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Bills get stonewalled often up front, winning only 53% of reps (2.9 sacks a game), Deone Walker (1.8 sacks, 0.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Packers' aerial attack runs through Christian Watson (90 yds a game, open on 66% of routes).
  • DJ Moore is the go-to for the Bills, separating on 50% of routes for 61 yds a game.
  • Shaq Thompson (Bills) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 44% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • MarShawn Lloyd sets the tempo for the Packers — 15 yds a game on the ground at 1.6 a carry into a stout front.
  • Expect a steady diet of James Cook: 67 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Bills, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

GB by 2.9 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Jordan Love ~315 pass yds (250+ 80%) James Cook ~67 rush yds (70+ 34%) Christian Watson ~106 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 74%)