BLT @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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BLT Ravens
24
PROJECTION
BLT 34 – DAL 31
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
BLT66%24 34
DAL34%20 31
20
DAL Cowboys
✓ RESULT BLT by 3 model BLT by 4.6, off by 1.6
✗ SPREAD BLT -3.5 LOSS line at publish BLT -3.5
✗ TOTAL 65 pts OVER O/U 52.5, model 44 lean under

Projected Team Stats

BLT
DAL
66% Win Probability 34%
368 Total Yards 320
223 Passing Yards 234
145 Rushing Yards 85
2.5 Sacks 2.2
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson231 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry94 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.8 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott251 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams44 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Pickens4.1 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 4.6

Run it 50 times and Ravens win 66% of them, by 4.6 on average (24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Derrick Henry, 6.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 56% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 5.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs DaRon Bland (Cowboys) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.8/8.1, 64 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Ravens — a 52% win rate yields only 4.7 sacks and 21.0 pressures a game, Tavius Robinson (1.3 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Cowboys get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.2 sacks a game), with Rashan Gary (1.3 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for Zay Flowers to eat: 5.8 catches and 64 yds a game for the Ravens.
  • The Cowboys will live and die with CeeDee Lamb, who comes open 55% of the time (56 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) travels and erases — only 26% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens hand it to Derrick Henry early and often, 16 carries for 94 yds a game at 6.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Javonte Williams: 44 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the Cowboys, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -4.6
Market lineBLT -3.5
Sim total44
Market total52.5
BLT by 4.6 (66% to win) Projected total 44 pts Dak Prescott ~251 pass yds (250+ 54%) Derrick Henry ~94 rush yds (70+ 66%) Zay Flowers ~82 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 50%)