BLT @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
BLT Ravens
25
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
BLT68%25
CIN32%19
19
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

BLT
CIN
68% Win Probability 32%
366 Total Yards 317
220 Passing Yards 283
146 Rushing Yards 34
1.6 Sacks 2.5
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson228 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry77 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.2 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.9 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow292 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Chase Brown22 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Tee Higgins4.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 5.9

The model leans Ravens by 5.9, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 25-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) - winner: Marlon Humphrey, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 61% of routes for 5.4/8.0, 57 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.3 sacks and 9.0 pressures a game (Nnamdi Madubuike (2.7 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 52% of their reps, mustering 4.8 sacks and 28.5 pressures a game, and Boye Mafe (1.6 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens will live and die with Zay Flowers, who comes open 61% of the time (57 yds a game).
  • Look for Ja'Marr Chase to eat: 8.3 catches and 65 yds a game for the Bengals.
  • Few balls get past Kyle Hamilton (Ravens), who yields separation on 37% of routes with 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens hand it to Derrick Henry early and often, 18 carries for 77 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 22 yds a game on the ground at 2.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

BLT by 5.9 (68% to win) Projected total 44 pts Joe Burrow ~292 pass yds (250+ 68%) Derrick Henry ~77 rush yds (70+ 58%) Zay Flowers ~78 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 56%)