BLT @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 5 slate
BLT Ravens
20
PROJECTION
BLT 30 – ATL 23
Week 5 50-sim average Sun 11 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
BLT54%20 30
ATL46%19 23
19
ATL Falcons
✓ RESULT BLT by 7 model BLT by 0.5, off by 6.5
✓ SPREAD BLT +3.5 WIN line at publish ATL -3.5
✗ TOTAL 53 pts OVER O/U 43.5, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

BLT
ATL
54% Win Probability 46%
333 Total Yards 300
216 Passing Yards 176
117 Rushing Yards 124
1.3 Sacks 2.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson228 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry67 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.0 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.178 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson89 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Drake London5.2 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.4 rec, 30 yds, 0.1 TD

Ravens by 0.5

The model leans Ravens by 0.5, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 20-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs CJ Henderson (Falcons) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 63% of routes for 5.1/7.6, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Drake London, open on 61% of routes for 7.8/9.9, 55 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (2.7 sacks a game), led by Trenton Simpson (0.5 sacks, 3.7 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 51% win rate yields only 4.7 sacks and 24.8 pressures a game, Samson Ebukam (1.1 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Zay Flowers headlines the Ravens' receiving corps — 5.1 catches for 54 yds a game on 63% separation.
  • The Falcons lean on Drake London, good for 7.8 catches and 55 yds a game while breaking open on 61% of his routes.
  • On the back end, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 36% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Derrick Henry is the workhorse for the Ravens, churning 67 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • Bijan Robinson is the workhorse for the Falcons, churning 89 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -0.5
Market lineATL -3.5
Sim total39
Market total43.5
BLT by 0.5 (54% to win) Projected total 39 pts Lamar Jackson ~228 pass yds (250+ 32%) Bijan Robinson ~89 rush yds (70+ 62%) Zay Flowers ~72 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 48%)