ATL @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ATL Falcons
28
PROJECTION
ATL 45 – NO 24
Week 4 50-sim average Mon 5 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
ATL66%28 45
NO34%21 24
21
NO Saints
✓ RESULT ATL by 21 model ATL by 6.9, off by 14.1
✓ BEST BET ATL +2.5 WIN line at publish NO -2.5
✓ TOTAL 69 pts OVER O/U 48, model 49 lean over

Projected Team Stats

ATL
NO
66% Win Probability 34%
391 Total Yards 355
244 Passing Yards 294
148 Rushing Yards 61
1.8 Sacks 1.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.237 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson96 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Drake London7.6 rec, 98 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.9 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough303 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.39 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave7.2 rec, 103 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Juwan Johnson4.6 rec, 54 yds, 0.5 TD

Falcons by 6.9

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 6.9 (28-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.6 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jahan Dotson (Falcons) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Quincy Riley, holding him to 23 yds on just 40% open, 0.5 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 61% of routes for 10.0/11.9, 92 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Drake London, open on 62% of routes for 9.1/12.5, 74 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.5 sacks a game, and Samson Ebukam (0.4 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Saints — a 49% win rate, 3.1 sacks and 9.4 pressures a game (Carl Granderson (0.6 sacks, 3.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Look for Drake London to eat: 9.1 catches and 74 yds a game for the Falcons.
  • Through the air it is Chris Olave's show for the Saints: 92 yds a game, open on 61% of routes.
  • In coverage, Quincy Riley (Saints) travels and erases — only 42% separation allowed, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Falcons ride Bijan Robinson: 17 carries, 96 yds a game (5.6 a carry), finding room to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Saints' run game leans on Travis Etienne Jr. — 11 carries, 39 yds a game (3.5 a carry).

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -6.9
Market lineNO -2.5
Sim total49
Market total48
ATL by 6.9 (66% to win) Projected total 49 pts Tyler Shough ~303 pass yds (250+ 82%) Bijan Robinson ~96 rush yds (70+ 72%) Chris Olave ~103 rec yds, 7.2 rec (70+ 82%)