ATL @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
ATL Falcons
29
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ATL62%29
CAR38%24
24
CAR Panthers

Projected Team Stats

ATL
CAR
62% Win Probability 38%
405 Total Yards 374
218 Passing Yards 296
187 Rushing Yards 78
2.8 Sacks 1.4
1.1 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.213 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson134 rush yds, 1.5 TD
REC Drake London6.3 rec, 87 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jahan Dotson3.2 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young312 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard41 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.1 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 5.4

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 62% of the time by an average of 5.4 (29-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 8.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Harold Perkins Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Harold Perkins Jr., holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Tetairoa McMillan, open on 63% of routes for 8.4/9.9, 81 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jaycee Horn (Panthers) - winner: Drake London, open on 60% of routes for 7.2/9.9, 67 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers' line should hold up: the Falcons win just 52% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game, and Samson Ebukam (1.5 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Falcons' quarterback should have time; the Panthers win just 50% of reps for 2.9 sacks a game, with Jaelan Phillips (2.3 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Drake London's show for the Falcons: 67 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 63% of routes for 81 yds a game.
  • Mike Jackson (Panthers) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 45% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 16 carries for 134 yds a game at 8.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.
  • The Panthers hand it to Chuba Hubbard early and often, 13 carries for 41 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

ATL by 5.4 (62% to win) Projected total 53 pts Bryce Young ~312 pass yds (250+ 78%) Bijan Robinson ~134 rush yds (70+ 88%) Tetairoa McMillan ~91 rec yds, 6.1 rec (70+ 66%)