ARZ @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

ARZ Cardinals

PROJECTION

ARZ 30 – SF 36

Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep

	WIN%	PROJ	FINAL
ARZ	28%	18	30
SF	72%	24	36

SF 49ers

✓ RESULT SF by 6 model SF by 6.9, off by 0.9

✓ SPREAD ARZ +8.5 WIN line at publish SF -8.5

✗ TOTAL 66 pts OVER O/U 47.5, model 42 lean under

ARZ

28% Win Probability 72%

301 Total Yards 364

227 Passing Yards 249

74 Rushing Yards 115

2.7 Sacks 2.9

1.5 Turnovers 1.2

ARZ

PASS

Jacoby Brissett247 pass yds, 1.3 TD

RUSH

Jeremiyah Love35 rush yds

REC

Michael Wilson5.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.2 TD

REC

Marvin Harrison Jr.4.2 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD

PASS

Brock Purdy249 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Christian McCaffrey59 rush yds, 0.7 TD

REC

Mike Evans5.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Deebo Samuel3.6 rec, 48 yds, 0.3 TD

49ers by 6.9

The sim sides with 49ers: a 6.9-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (24-18).

In the Trenches

Don't expect much heat from the 49ers — a 49% win rate yields only 6.0 sacks and 24.6 pressures a game, Nick Bosa (3.4 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
Pressure could be scarce for the Cardinals — a 50% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 26.8 pressures a game — Josh Sweat (2.8 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.

Through the Air

Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 51% of routes for 56 yds a game.
The Cardinals will live and die with Michael Wilson, who comes open 53% of the time (51 yds a game).
Receivers won't find much room against Fred Warner (49ers): 38% separation allowed, good for 0.3 INT a game.

On the Ground

On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 15 carries, 59 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.
Jeremiyah Love is the workhorse for the Cardinals, churning 35 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Sim lineSF -6.9

Market lineSF -8.5

Sim total42

Market total47.5

SF by 6.9 (72% to win) Projected total 42 pts Brock Purdy ~249 pass yds (250+ 50%) Christian McCaffrey ~59 rush yds (70+ 38%) Mike Evans ~74 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 48%)