ARZ @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
22
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
ARZ42%22
NO58%25
25
NO Saints

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
NO
42% Win Probability 58%
355 Total Yards 387
287 Passing Yards 324
68 Rushing Yards 63
2.3 Sacks 1.9
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett294 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love24 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.4 rec, 114 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Trey McBride4.7 rec, 55 yds, 0.6 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough331 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara25 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave8.8 rec, 128 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Devaughn Vele4.3 rec, 56 yds, 0.4 TD

Saints by 2.5

Run it 50 times and Saints win 58% of them, by 2.5 on average (25-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Denzel Burke (Cardinals) - winner: Denzel Burke, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Martin Emerson Jr. (Saints) - winner: Martin Emerson Jr., holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 61% of routes for 10.5/13.3, 109 yds a game - the edge through the air.
  • Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Michael Wilson, open on 58% of routes for 9.9/14.1, 86 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Saints get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.2 sacks a game), with Carl Granderson (1.1 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.8 sacks a game (Josh Sweat (3.1 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Chris Olave is the engine of the Saints' passing game — 109 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • Michael Wilson headlines the Cardinals' receiving corps — 9.9 catches for 86 yds a game on 58% separation.
On the Ground
  • The Saints hand it to Alvin Kamara early and often, 10 carries for 25 yds a game at 2.5 a carry with tough sledding.
  • On the ground, the Cardinals ride Jeremiyah Love: 9 carries, 24 yds a game (2.8 a carry), with his best work to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

NO by 2.5 (58% to win) Projected total 47 pts Tyler Shough ~331 pass yds (250+ 92%) Chris Olave ~128 rec yds, 8.8 rec (70+ 94%)