ARZ @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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ARZ Cardinals
13
PROJECTION
ARZ 18 – LA 16
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
ARZ2%13 18
LA98%31 16
31
LA Rams
✗ RESULT ARZ by 2 model LA by 17.2, off by 19.2
✗ SPREAD LA -13.5 LOSS line at publish LA -13.5
✓ TOTAL 34 pts UNDER O/U 52, model 44 lean under

Projected Team Stats

ARZ
LA
2% Win Probability 98%
269 Total Yards 460
236 Passing Yards 328
33 Rushing Yards 131
2.1 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett255 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacoby Brissett11 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Michael Wilson7.8 rec, 87 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Trey McBride4.6 rec, 45 yds, 0.3 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford302 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams78 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.7 rec, 104 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Davante Adams5.7 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD

Rams by 17.2

The model leans Rams by 17.2, winning 98% of 50 sims (projected 31-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 55 yds on just 38% open, 1.7 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Emmanuel Forbes (Rams) - winner: Emmanuel Forbes, holding him to 1.1 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Jack Gibbens (Cardinals) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 64% of routes for 10.6/12.2, 96 yds a game - separation all day.
  • Davante Adams (Rams) vs Max Melton (Cardinals) - winner: Davante Adams, open on 62% of routes for 5.6/8.0, 57 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams may have to manufacture pressure, winning 53% up front for 5.0 sacks a game, and Byron Young (1.8 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 50% win rate yields only 4.2 sacks and 16.7 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (2.7 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua should find soft spots all day, open 64% of the time for 96 yds a game.
  • The Cardinals' aerial attack runs through Michael Wilson (55 yds a game, open on 38% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Trent McDuffie (Rams): 32% separation allowed with 1.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Rams ride Kyren Williams: 15 carries, 78 yds a game (5.2 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Jeremiyah Love sets the tempo for the Cardinals — 10 yds a game on the ground at 1.1 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -17.2
Market lineLA -13.5
Sim total44
Market total52
LA by 17.2 (98% to win) Projected total 44 pts Matthew Stafford ~302 pass yds (250+ 78%) Kyren Williams ~78 rush yds (70+ 54%) Puka Nacua ~104 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 80%)