TCU Horned Frogs 2026 Preview: A Harvard Arm and a Linebacker Question Define the Frogs' Ceiling
TCU went 9-4 in 2025, finished 5-4 in the Big 12 and capped the year with an overtime win over USC in the Alamo Bowl, a second straight nine-win season under Sonny Dykes. The defining offseason story is turnover at the controls. Quarterback Josh Hoover left for Indiana and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles moved on, so the Horned Frogs handed the keys to Harvard graduate transfer Jaden Craig and new coordinator Gordon Sammis. How quickly that pairing clicks will decide whether Fort Worth pushes back toward the top of the league.
Offense
Craig arrives as one of the more accomplished FCS passers to make the jump, having set Harvard's career passing record with 6,074 yards and a 52-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That ball security is the whole point of the move. Hoover was picked off 33 times across 31 starts, and Craig's profile is built on the opposite, protecting the football and staying out of third-and-long. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, the New Jersey native brings size, arm strength and enough mobility to fit Sammis' scheme, a more physical under-center system carried over from UConn, where the offense averaged 5.1 yards per carry and committed just two turnovers all of last season. The catch is that Craig has never taken an FBS snap, so the opener will be a genuine test. Redshirt freshman Adam Schobel, the program's quarterback of the future, waits behind him.
The receiving room lost first-team All-Big 12 target Eric McAlister and must rebuild around Jordan Dwyer, who posted 730 yards at 13.5 per catch with seven touchdowns as the second-leading receiver. Dykes believes he has the most receiver depth of his tenure to work with. Ed Small flashed as a true freshman with 186 yards, South Alabama transfer Jeremy Scott joins the mix, and young wideouts Terry Shelton and Dozie Ezukanma are expected to take on bigger roles. At tight end, Lafayette Kaiuway and Ka'Morreun Pimpton give Sammis' pro-style attack functional options in the middle of the field.
Jeremy Payne is the engine of the plan. He ran for 623 yards at 5.7 a carry, topped 100 in each of his final two regular-season games, went for 174 against Cincinnati and delivered the walk-off touchdown against USC in the Alamo Bowl, all of which stamps him as a legitimate Big 12 breakout candidate. He is the focal point of a run-first system that leans on establishing the ground game, and Jon Denman provides depth behind him.
The line returns three starters and could be, in Dykes' estimation, the deepest he has fielded at TCU, with roughly 95 career FBS starts on hand. Ben Taylor-Whitfield and Cade Bennett anchor an experienced left side, and Cooper Powers projects to start at center. Transfers Noah McKinney and Jaheim Buchanon were brought in to raise the floor. The right side remains an open competition. Redshirt sophomore Ryan Hughes looked like an all-conference-caliber tackle before a season-ending injury in Week 5 last year and figures prominently into the plans if healthy. The group has size and depth, but it still needs to settle the right side to give Sammis' system its footing.
Defense
The front is the strength of the defense. Tackles Markis Deal and Ansel Din-Mbuh, the latter a Washington State transfer who logged six sacks in his first TCU season, anchor an interior that helped the Frogs finish fifth in the Big 12 in rushing defense. On the edge, Zach Chapman projects as a physical, bruising presence, and Paul Oyewale is a breakout candidate after a strong junior campaign that followed a 2024 lost entirely to injury. The unit loses productive end Devean Deal but returns most of its rotation and adds Texas Tech transfer Cheta Ofili, shaping up as one of the stronger fronts in the conference.
Linebacker is the clear concern. TCU lost its two most experienced players in All-Big 12 selection Kaleb Elarms-Orr and veteran Namdi Obiazor, and it has no proven replacements. Max Carroll slides to the middle to fill Elarms-Orr's spot, and Michael Short, who recorded 22 tackles in his lone season at Virginia Tech, is in line to start alongside him. A cluster of redshirt freshmen and transfers is competing for the remaining snaps, and finding a reliable second answer next to Carroll is one of the season's swing factors.
The secondary carries more structure. Jamel Johnson returns as an All-Big 12 safety after a breakout junior year in which he piled up 96 tackles and five interceptions, and he leads a group determined to fix a pass defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in yards allowed. Cornerback was the biggest weakness a year ago, but the emergence of Gil Jackson, a long 6-3 sophomore who impressed after earning time as a freshman, offers real hope. Vernon Glover Jr. returns as a starter, and the staff added Power 4 experience in Kalen Carroll from Central Michigan along with Louisiana Tech's Jacob Fields, a CUSA Co-Defensive Player of the Year, to help replace the departed Bud Clark. Depth is a genuine asset here.
Special teams should be a plus after a shaky stretch. Kicker Kyle Lemmermann is back and healthy after a leg injury cut short his 2025, and the Frogs added Louisiana Tech transfer punter John Hoyet Chance, who averaged 47.3 yards per punt to rank fifth nationally. That imported leg upgrades a punting unit that was a liability a year ago and gives the coverage teams a much steadier foundation.
Overview and Prediction
The schedule opens in unusual fashion, a Week 0 trip to Dublin, Ireland, to face North Carolina on August 29, and the road slate stacks up with visits to UCF, Baylor, Arizona and a Thursday closer at Texas Tech. The preseason consensus slots TCU around ninth in the Big 12 and in the mid-30s nationally, a reflection of real talent tempered by the loss of star power on both sides.
The Alamo Bowl win over USC bought goodwill, but the Frogs have not reached the Big 12 title game since their 2022 national runner-up run, and Dykes has made clear that back-to-back nine-win seasons are no longer the ceiling he wants. The verdict comes down to two questions: can Craig make the jump from the FCS to Big 12 defenses without losing the ball security that recommends him, and can a thin linebacker corps find a second option next to Max Carroll? If both break right, TCU has the line play, the run game and the skill talent to climb toward the top half of the league. If either stalls, another nine-win finish is the likely outcome.

