Baylor Bears 2026 Season Preview

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Baylor Bears 2026 Season Preview: Lagway Homecoming Anchors Aranda's Do-or-Die Year

Baylor went 5-7 (3-6 Big 12) in 2025, missing a bowl for the second time in three years and leaving Dave Aranda squarely on the hot seat entering his seventh season. The school retained the coach who delivered the 2021 Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl win largely for stability, but no one inside the program is treating this as anything other than a prove-it year. The offseason answer was a near-total roster overhaul built around a homegrown headliner: the Bears return only a handful of starters and lean on a wave of transfers on both lines, with the season's excitement tied to one quarterback's arrival.

Offense

Quarterback

The keys belong to DJ Lagway, a homecoming story with real stakes. Once regarded as the top overall quarterback prospect in his recruiting class, the former five-star transfers to Waco where his father Derek was a Baylor running back around the turn of the century. Two up-and-down years at Florida produced 4,179 yards and 28 touchdowns against 23 interceptions, and last fall an August injury left him short of full health, holding him to 2,284 yards at a 63 percent clip. The flashes he showed as a freshman, plus a clean bill of health, are why we view him as a legitimate draft-radar arm. If he rediscovers his best form he can stress the whole width of the field in Jake Spavital's up-tempo attack. Behind him sit sophomore Nate Bennett and true freshmen Quinn Murphy and Edward Griffin, so the margin for error is thin.

Receivers and Tight End

Lagway inherits a receiving corps stripped of its top four targets and its starting tight end. Louis Brown IV steps into a featured outside role after a productive campaign that included 620 yards at better than 16 per catch. Dre'lon Miller arrives from Colorado as a do-a-little-of-everything weapon, having chipped in 158 receiving yards and another 134 on the ground, and figures for a similarly broad role here. Jadon Porter returns for his third year in Waco hoping for a larger slice, while Gavin Freeman brings 481 receiving yards from his time at Oklahoma State. At tight end, Matthew Klopfenstein is the veteran presence, joined by Tony Livingston, who followed Lagway over from Florida.

Running Backs

Dawson Pendergrass leads the backfield after a foot injury cost him all of last season; he ran for 674 yards in 2024 and profiles as the early-down hammer. The depth behind him is young but promising: Caden Knighten (469 yards, 4.5 per carry) and Michael Turner (320 yards, 4.9) both flashed as fill-ins a year ago, and prized freshman Ryelan Morris joins the rotation. Getting Pendergrass through a full season is the swing factor for a run game that finished near the bottom of the Big 12 in 2025.

Offensive Line

Four of five starters are gone, making the line the biggest question on offense. Kaden Sieracki is the lone holdover, back at right tackle after starting all of last year, and his brother Koltin slides in at center. The rest is a portal rebuild: Logan Moore comes from UAB at left tackle, Nate Kibble arrives from Texas and headlines the newcomers at guard, Asher Hale brings 11 starts at South Alabama, and Yakiri Walker adds a full season of starts from Memphis. Aranda made the front a recruiting priority, and the group has the career starts to be steadier and more physical than the patchwork units of past rebuilds, but the chemistry is unproven.

Defense

Defensive Line and Edge

Aranda handed defensive play-calling to first-year coordinator Joe Klanderman, who spent the previous six seasons running Kansas State's defense. His attacking, havoc-first scheme is a direct response to a unit that managed just 12 sacks and surrendered 197.2 rushing yards per game in 2025. The front is almost entirely new. Hosea Wheeler anchors inside after playing meaningful snaps for national runner-up Indiana, with returning starter Devonte Tezino alongside him. Jamaal Whyce Jr. brings 34 tackles and six for loss from Marshall, and Zavion Hardy adds Power Four size on the edge. Ryan Davis and Garrick Ponder man the JACK spot, with Kyler Jordan and Jordan Mack rounding out the rotation. On paper this is the deepest and most talented line Aranda has assembled at Baylor, provided the newcomers mesh quickly.

Linebackers

Travion Barnes is the difference-maker the front seven is built around. A former Conference USA Player of the Year at FIU who piled up 129 tackles and 10.5 for loss, he was rounding into form last season before a leg injury ended it early, and a healthy return would lift the whole level. Kyland Reed is back as the returning No. 4 tackler with 49 stops, and Kedrick Walker arrives from Georgia State with 57 tackles and 6.5 for loss. Sophomore Kaleb Burns adds depth to a group Aranda counts among his defense's genuine strengths.

Defensive Backs

The secondary was Baylor's steadiest unit a year ago and returns its core. LeVar Thornton Jr. anchors the back end after a strong season with 30 tackles and eight pass breakups. Devon Jordan brings starting experience from Oklahoma to the other corner. Devin Turner, a former All-Big Ten safety at Northwestern who logged 162 tackles and four interceptions across three seasons, returns after a torn ACL wiped out his first Baylor campaign, and former walk-on Jacob Redding is back after 53 tackles and five pass breakups. The room mostly needs a reliable man-cover safety to emerge to be a genuine asset.

Special Teams

Punter Palmer Williams is the headliner, a Ray Guy Award finalist who averaged 46.9 yards per attempt with strong net numbers. The kicking job is a question after Connor Hawkins bolted for Ohio State via the portal; sophomore Rhett Armstrong, highly rated out of high school, handled kickoffs last year but has never attempted a field goal in a game. Both return jobs are open competitions heading into camp.

Overview and Prediction

The schedule opens with a marquee neutral-site date against Auburn in Atlanta, then softens with Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech before conference play. Five Big 12 road games and a closing stretch of BYU, Texas Tech and Houston will define the season. The preseason consensus is cool, projecting Baylor in the bottom third of the league, roughly 11th or 12th, and the run defense from a year ago is the reason for the skepticism.

Still, most power ratings peg the Bears as a bowl team, and last year they were essentially one play from getting there. Our verdict lands in between: this roster has the pieces to bounce back, but everything hinges on two variables. Lagway's health and his fit in Spavital's system will decide the ceiling, and the portal-heavy front seven has to gel fast enough to fix a defense that could not stop the run. Get both right and Baylor surprises people and saves its coach. Get either wrong and it becomes a long, decisive autumn, because this is a do-or-die season for Aranda and everyone in Waco knows it.

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