Arch Manning QB Texas |
NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
| Jersey: #16 PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Last Updated: 11/03/2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Draft Year: 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FORTY time: 4.62 seconds (88%*) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age: 21.6 DOB: 04/27/2005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Jersey: #16 | |
| PLAY STYLE: Mobile Pocket Passer | |
| Last Updated: 11/03/2026 | |
| Draft Year: 2027 | |
| Forty time: 4.62 seconds (88%*) | |
| Age: 21.6 DOB: 04/27/2005 | |
| Overall Rating: |
89.0 / 100
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| Average rating of opposition Defense player has faced | ||
| Defense Rating: |
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79% |
| Click the links below to view how player ranks vs other prospects. | ||
| Release Speed: |
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79% |
| Short Passing: |
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73% |
| Medium Passing: |
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78% |
| Long Passing: |
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94% |
| Rush/Scramble: |
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68% |
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DRAFT PROJECTION:
1st - Top 10
Overall Rank:
#7
Position rank:
#3 (QB)
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| College Games: 29 College Snaps: 1608 | ||
ESPN RATING: 93/100
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247 RATING: 100/100
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RIVALS RATING: 6.1 (100%)
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| Player Comparison* (Similarity level) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance - North Dakota State |
|
85% |
| Drake Maye - North Carolina |
|
81% |
| Will Levis - Kentucky |
|
75% |
Draft Profile: Bio
Arch Manning rewrote his uncles' passing records at Isidore Newman School in New Orleans, finishing with 8,599 yards, 115 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, and also won a state basketball title in 2022. Every major service ranked him the top recruit in the 2023 class. His grandfather Archie and uncles Peyton and Eli played quarterback in the NFL, and his father, Cooper, played receiver at Ole Miss.Manning redshirted behind Quinn Ewers in 2023 and started twice in 2024, completing 61 of 90 passes with nine touchdowns. In 2025, his first year as the starter, he threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns with seven interceptions and ran for 10 scores as Texas went 10-3. He threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas, returned a week after a concussion at Mississippi State to throw for 328 yards against Vanderbilt and ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Minor foot surgery followed in January 2026.
Manning led a fourth-quarter comeback in the 24-23 win over No. 1 Ohio State in September and was named SEC co-offensive player of the week. He threw three touchdowns and two interceptions in the 27-24 loss to Oklahoma, was sacked six times in the loss to Florida and threw two more interceptions against Ole Miss in a game Texas won while he ran for two scores. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi State and has 1,724 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions through eight games.
Scouting Report: Strengths
- Rare athlete for the position who punishes lost contain for chunk yards
- Deep ball jumps off his hand from multiple launch points
- Led the comeback win over No. 1 Ohio State in September
- Compact release with natural zip on in-breakers when his base is set
- Ran for 155 yards and two scores in the Citrus Bowl win
- Forces defenses to choose between spying him and covering, a real schematic conflict
- Torched Arkansas for 389 yards and four touchdowns in 2025
Scouting Report: Weaknesses
- Short accuracy wavers, and his base narrows under pressure
- Seven interceptions and 25 sacks taken through eight games this season
- Holds the ball too long, which has fed both the sacks and the turnovers
Scouting Report: Summary
Manning entered college as the top-ranked recruit in the country, and the tools that made him that are all still there. The deep ball jumps off his hand at every launch point, the release is compact, and he is a true dual threat who ran for 10 touchdowns in 2025 and 155 yards in the Citrus Bowl. When contain breaks he punishes it, and the conflict between spying him and covering his receivers is a real advantage for a play caller.He has also shown he can deliver when it matters. He led the fourth-quarter comeback against No. 1 Ohio State in September, and his 2025 tape got steadily better from September to December, when he was throwing with anticipation rather than waiting on separation. The Mississippi State game this fall, 16 of 20 for three touchdowns, was the clean version teams want every week, and Steve Sarkisian has said the struggles of 2025 taught him things about himself.
However, the 2026 season has been a roller coaster. He has seven interceptions in eight games, two each against Oklahoma and Ole Miss, and he has taken 25 sacks, six of them in the loss to Florida. The misses are mechanical: his base narrows under pressure, the release point wanders and short throws sail. He compounds it by holding the ball for the perfect picture instead of taking the checkdown, which feeds both the sacks and the turnovers. The January foot surgery and the 2025 concussion are on the medical file as well.
Overall, the tools, the bloodlines and the late-game answers keep Manning in the top-ten conversation, and he has the arm to make every NFL throw, but the decision-making has to steady. He projects as a first-round quarterback with a franchise ceiling and a wider range of outcomes than the other passers at the top of the class.
How other scouting services rate Arch Manning (Overall Rank)
All Scouts AverageOverall Rank
14.6
All Scouts AveragePosition Rank
2.0
*Percentile Ranking in Player's Position Group (NFL Combine Historical Data): This percentile reflects how a player's specific statistics rank
in comparison to historical performances at the NFL Combine, specifically within their position group. A higher percentile indicates a better performance.
For instance, being in the 90th percentile for a particular stat means the player outperformed 90% of their peers in that category.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.
*Similarity Percentage: This percentage is calculated based on a comprehensive analysis of various factors, including height, weight, 40-yard dash times, on-field performance statistics, and overall player rating. The analysis is conducted against our database of draft prospects from 2021 to 2023. This similarity score helps in evaluating how closely a current prospect aligns with past prospects. It is important to note, however, that this score reflects similarities based on college production and attributes, and does not account for eventual success or performance in the NFL.