The Race for the 2027 No. 1 Pick: Why Every Result Counts
The Los Angeles Chargers being considered a playoff contender at the start of the season seems ridiculous now. Any optimism around them has been shattered, and they’ve now fallen to 0-6 (as of time of writing), and are still looking for their first win.
This kind of form is obviously a disaster for the Chargers, but it does introduce the Chargers to the world of the tankers. The 2027 draft class is stacked with talent ready for the NFL. The Chargers may be in deep trouble, but it comes with a silver lining in the chase for a quality draft pick.
How the race for the No. 1 pick looks
The NFL draft order is primarily decided by reverse regular-season record, punishing success and rewarding struggle. When teams finish completely level on record, they are separated by their strength of schedule. In this scenario, the franchise that faced the mathematically weaker schedule picks earlier.
The first 18 draft picks are permanently locked in when the regular season ends, while the remaining 14 slots are determined sequentially after the playoffs conclude. This crucial process culminates when the draft runs from April 29 to May 1, 2027, in Washington, D.C.
As it stands, the Chargers sit comfortably at the very bottom of the league standings with a disappointing 0-6 record. They are closely trailed by the Tennessee Titans at 1-6 and the Miami Dolphins at 1-5. Their current order by winning percentage is the Chargers, followed by the Titans (.143), and then the Dolphins (.167). Plenty of other teams could well fall to the bottom rung of the draft board, but for now, those are the contenders.
What now for these teams?
There’s a lot more to this than just teams deliberately being bad. We’re still less than half way through the season, records can still change, and that’s best seen in the betting. Futures in NFL betting, like win totals and division winners, are decided later in the year, which is a reminder that nothing is settled yet. A push for the playoffs looks unlikely for these teams, but a full tank might not be accepted by expectant fanbases, but for some teams, the draft class may be too enticing.
The ultimate prize at stake in April is securing franchise-altering talent at the top of the board. Positioned at No. 1 overall, a team controls the entire draft board, retaining the leverage either to handpick their foundational centerpiece or dictate trade terms to aggressive suitors.
The coveted targets at the top of the board depend heavily on roster construction. For the Chargers, who already have a franchise quarterback under contract, the focus shifts toward a generational blue-chip weapon like Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith, elite tackle protection such as LSU's Jordan Seaton, or trading back for a massive package.
Conversely, Tennessee and Miami desperately need answers under center. Both franchises are evaluating a loaded quarterback class headlined by Miami passer Darian Mensah, Texas standout Arch Manning, Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, and Oregon signal-caller Dante Moore to spearhead a long-term turnaround.
Fans should keep a close eye on the waiver wire and upcoming injury reports to see if these struggling franchises effectively throw in the towel. The ultimate payoff for this grueling season of losses will be realized when the 2027 NFL Draft officially opens in Washington, D.C., next spring.