How Prediction Markets Are Sizing Up the Early NFL Season

How Polymarket Works

Before we get into the lay of the land for fall 2026, we should probably explain how prediction markets work. Polymarket, one of the earliest prediction markets, works by issuing event contracts for each outcome. Most of these are questions, with contracts for ‘yes’ or ‘no’ that traders buy, or athlete names for props.

The price of each contract depends on how many other people have bought it, making clear favorites, underdogs, and sometimes upsets. When the market resolves, the contracts spike or fall, and the market closes. Traders can buy a contract and sell before the market actually resolves, trading sentiment instead of the result.

Prediction markets have a lot of crossover users with sports betting platforms and offer similar incentives to their users. For example, newcomers using a Polymarket promo code can claim trading bonuses, effectively giving them a few predictions for free after a deposit. 

The NFL’s Biggest Prediction Markets

With prediction markets understood, let’s run through each of the NFL’s biggest markets by trade volume. They’re quite predictable, speculating on which teams will carry each conference division, the AFC and NFC conference itself, and, of course, win Super Bowl LXI in February.

AFC/NFC Division Winners

Markets allow true fans to speculate on the lower hurdles, instead of focusing on the big game. This is best seen in the division markets, where fans try to predict which team will stand the tallest against their three local rivals. The most popular of these tend to follow strong, competitive teams.

Example: The AFC West and AFC East are very popular, simply because fans are pulling for the Kansas City Chiefs (57% to win) and the Buffalo Bills (79% to win), respectively. Given they frequently dominate the division, we can’t blame them.

AFC/NFC Conference Champions

From there, fans are already speculating on the actual conference winners too. It’s no surprise that the same division-dominant teams make a showing here, but unlike standings, these markets resolve in just one game. That leaves room for upsets. Early markets have the Buffalo Bills as the favorite for the 2027 AFC Champs, while the LA Rams and the San Francisco 49ers tie for the NFC conference.

NFL Champions

No surprise that this is the single largest market for the NFL, having taken in $61 million in trade volume as of writing. That will surge as the big day approaches, but who exactly becomes the favorite is a little too early to call. The Buffalo Bills have emerged as a tentative favorite, but they only recently took over from the LA Rams. We’ve already said that the Rams pose a serious threat to the other teams, and it seems markets agree.

Tangentially Sports Related

Since prediction markets allow markets for everything, some tangential sports markets will dominate the category despite not being related to sports at all. One great example is “Who Will Attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding?” Fans probably remember the Taylor Swift effect, where the star brought new audiences to the NFL. It also means everything they do is subject to speculation, creating a market that rewards those who pay attention to Kelce’s life off the field.

It’s the nature of prediction markets to start off hazy and narrow down into concrete favorites before the big day comes. As the season rages on, there’s little doubt we’ll see some teams drop the ball, and others pick it up, and the prediction markets will reflect every change in fan sentiment.