Manning's Austin Comeback, Moore's Stillwater Stumble: How Two Weeks impacted our 2027 Draft Board

Two weeks into the 2026 season and the 2027 NFL Draft board already looks different from the one scouts carried into September. The No. 1 team in the country coughed up a 20-point fourth-quarter lead in Austin, the quarterback sitting second on our board went under 50 percent in a loss to a program that had dropped 21 straight FBS games, and a former walk-on in Stillwater justified his mid-first-round grade on the same afternoon. Elsewhere, a receiver in Columbus reminded everybody why he is the safest pick in the draft regardless of what his team does, and two SEC quarterbacks with transfer backstories delivered debuts that will shift the order of the position. Here is how the opening fortnight moved the needle on the players NFL teams will be arguing about next April.

Manning Survives Austin, and Smith Owns It

For three quarters on Saturday, Arch Manning looked like the quarterback his critics have been describing since the 2025 opener against the same Buckeyes. He went 7 of 14 for 60 yards and an interception in the first half, Texas managed a single field goal through 45 minutes, and Ohio State walked into the fourth quarter leading 23-3 in front of 105,044 people who had started looking for the exits.

Then the Longhorns muffed a punt at their own 11 and Manning turned the game around from there. He converted fourth-and-9 with a 9-yard throw to Emaree Winston on a 15-play, 91-yard drive that ended with a 3-yard touchdown to Ryan Wingo. He converted fourth-and-6 from his own 32 with a 12-yard strike to Emmett Mosley V on the next possession, which Hollywood Smothers finished from the 1. After Connor Hawkins hooked a 45-yard field goal left with 4:16 to play, Manning took the ball at his own 27 and found Mosley for 17 and 19 yards before Smothers scored again with 25 seconds on the clock. Texas ran 27 plays for 150 yards in the fourth quarter alone, converted 4 of 5 third downs and held the ball for 10:04.

The final line was 23 of 37 for 195 yards, one touchdown and one pick, and the second-half split of 16 of 23 for 135 yards is the number scouts will circle. Manning has not been efficient in either meeting with Ohio State, but the traits that got him ranked in the top five of this class were all on display in the last 15 minutes: he stood in against pressure, worked through his progressions, and delivered on the two fourth downs that decided the game. The Trevor Lawrence comparisons that circulated after the game are about ceiling rather than current production, and that is exactly the debate he will carry through SEC play. His career line now stands at 40 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

The other side of the field is less complicated. Jeremiah Smith caught 8 passes for 164 yards and a 19-yard touchdown against a Texas secondary that had no answer for him until the fourth quarter, when the Longhorns bracketed him and Ohio State's offense stalled out. His mid-air adjustment on a contested throw late in the first half, twisting to shield the ball from two defenders and securing it for a first down, was the kind of catch that gets replayed in draft rooms. Add the 8 catches, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns he put on Ball State in the opener and Smith is averaging over 157 yards per game. One veteran evaluator called him the top prospect in the country and one of the highest-graded players he has scouted in nearly three decades. The Julio Jones comparison holds up, and the loss does nothing to his standing as the No. 1 player on our board.

Julian Sayin is the harder evaluation. He went 12 of 16 for 192 yards and a score in the first half, then 6 of 16 for 86 yards after the break as Ohio State's ground game managed 94 yards on 31 carries with a long of 11. Sayin's game is built on processing and touch rather than arm strength, and when the run game disappeared and Texas started sitting on his intermediate throws, the offense went with it. A 320-yard, three-touchdown opener against Ball State is what he can do against a defense that lets him operate. We have him third overall on the strength of that processing, and a nation-leading 77 percent completion rate last season backs it up, but plenty of evaluators see a Kirk Cousins-style ceiling rather than a franchise arm. The second half in Austin is the tape they will point to.

The Wideouts and the Edge Behind Manning

Cam Coleman came out of the opener against Texas State with 3 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns and looked like a player ready to push from 24th on our board into the top 10. Against Ohio State he had 3 catches for 35 yards on 5 targets, and an early deep ball that popped free on the ground was ruled an interception despite a replay that could have gone either way. The movement skills are there, and his ability to win on 50-50 throws is what draws the A.J. Green comparisons, but he needs to sharpen his route detail and tighten his hands before that move is earned.

Wingo's week ran the same way in reverse. He had 7 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in the opener, then let a perfectly placed ball slip through his hands in stride in the second quarter against the Buckeyes before catching the touchdown that started the comeback. Eight drops last season already had scouts asking questions about his concentration, and this was another entry in that file.

On the other side of the ball, Colin Simmons recorded a sack and held up in the run game, and the Texas pass rush that kept Sayin from finding rhythm after halftime is the reason the comeback was possible. He remains the top edge in the class. Ohio State's Kenyatta Jackson Jr. answered with 5 tackles, a tackle for loss and a sack of his own, and his size profile as an outside linebacker with edge versatility is going to keep him in the Day 2 mix. Texas also has an injury to monitor: offensive tackle Trevor Goosby, a first-round prospect, is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee with no firm timeline.

Dante Moore Loses in Stillwater, Mestemaker Cashes In

Both experts CBS polled before the season had a quarterback at No. 1 overall, and one of them had Dante Moore. The Oregon quarterback's opener against Boise State was a 34-27 escape, and Saturday in Stillwater was worse. Moore went 5 of 15 for 45 yards in the first half, took three third- or fourth-down sacks across the game including one from Jaleel Johnson, and finished 14 of 29 for 191 yards with two touchdowns, one of them a 36-yarder to Evan Stewart. Oregon managed 281 total yards. Oklahoma State piled up 554 and won 39-31, ending a 21-game FBS losing streak a year after the Ducks beat them by 66.

The pocket navigation and downfield accuracy that got Moore ranked first are still on last season's film, and one loss to an unranked team does not erase a body of work. But the No. 1 overall pick has to carry a team when the line breaks down and the run game stalls, and Moore did not do that. The draft-stock damage is real even if the ceiling is unchanged, and the gap between Moore at No. 2 on our board and Manning at No. 4 has closed.

The other quarterback in that game has sat in the middle of our first round since the summer, and Saturday showed why. Drew Mestemaker, a former walk-on who led the nation with 4,379 passing yards last season, had opened 2026 with a loss to Tulsa in which he attempted 54 dropbacks, produced three turnover-worthy plays and posted the fifth-lowest PFF grade among Power Four starters. A week later he ripped off a 75-yard run on the first snap against Oregon, threw for 317 yards and two scores, rushed for 109 and a touchdown, and, after Oregon went ahead 31-30, escaped the pocket and launched himself through two defenders for a 10-yard score that won the game. He also threw two interceptions, one returned 96 yards for a touchdown and another that Matayo Uiagalelei carried back to the Oklahoma State 1. That is the whole evaluation in one afternoon: pro-level athleticism and toughness alongside decision-making that still costs his team points. His top target, Wyatt Young, had 5 catches for 121 yards and a 52-yard score and averaged better than 24 yards a grab, and at 53rd on our board he is already closer to the first round than most people outside Stillwater realise.

Mensah and Leavitt Reorder the SEC and ACC Quarterbacks

Nobody in the class had a better opening night than Darian Mensah. In his Miami debut at Stanford he completed 27 of 30 passes for 412 yards and five touchdowns, started 8 for 8 for 129 yards and two scores, and earned a 93.0 passing grade, the best of any FBS quarterback in Week 1. The context matters: he snapped a seven-game streak dating back to last season in which he had recorded at least one turnover-worthy play, and he did it with new receivers, including Harvard transfer Cooper Barkate, who had 4 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Malachi Toney set a Miami single-game record with 229 receiving yards. Miami followed it with 856 total yards, a school record, in a 77-7 win over Florida A&M, with Mensah going 14 of 15 for 252 yards and three touchdowns. We have him 87th overall and seventh among quarterbacks, behind Carr and Mestemaker as well as the top three. Two more weeks like this and that ranking will not survive.

Sam Leavitt had the more complicated fortnight. In Lane Kiffin's LSU debut he threw for 230 yards and rushed for 113 with two scores on the ground in a 51-10 destruction of Clemson, forcing a normally disciplined Dabo Swinney defense into five missed tackles and picking up 85 of those rushing yards after contact. He and Dillin Jones, who also went for 113 and two touchdowns, gave LSU two 100-yard rushers in a game for the first time since 2023, and the Tigers finished with 644 yards. Then Louisiana Tech came to Baton Rouge and Leavitt threw interceptions on three straight second-quarter drives, one of them returned for a touchdown, in a 344-yard, three-pick game that LSU still won 45-14. Scouts already liked the dual-threat upside. The question now is whether the accuracy holds up when the running lanes close.

Two more LSU names moved. Edge rusher Jordan Ross earned a 94.0 grade against Clemson with 4 pressures and a sack on just 15 pass-rush snaps, and his 30-yard pick-six of Christopher Vizzina, dropping into coverage from the edge, was LSU's first interception return for a touchdown since September 2025. Trey'Dez Green, the 6-foot-7 tight end one CBS analyst named the biggest non-quarterback riser in the class before the season, was a regular target including a 21-yard catch in the opener.

The Clemson side of that game took the hit. Sammy Brown had 10 tackles, most of them chasing runners downfield, and was a non-factor against a rushing attack that had two 100-yard backs. Will Heldt had 4 tackles and no impact on the pass rush. Southern Miss transfer safety Corey Myrick allowed 53 yards and 3 first downs in coverage and graded 11th among 18 Clemson defenders. Brown did not look like the top-50 talent we have him as, and Heldt did nothing to push himself up from the back end of Day 2. Clemson receiver T.J. Moore is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

Notre Dame Passes at Lambeau, Michigan Wins Ugly

Notre Dame led Wisconsin 13-10 at halftime at Lambeau Field before pulling away 41-13, and the second half told the draft story. Leonard Moore barely appeared in the box score because Wisconsin refused to throw at him, which is the stat line a shutdown corner wants. Safety Adon Shuler, playing days before his father's funeral, was arguably the best defender on the field, erasing a tight end in the end zone early and hitting everything that moved. Anthonie Knapp made his first start at left guard and dominated the run game after halftime. The concern was Christian Gray, who gave up multiple first downs and got beaten badly on a double move after grading 52.5 last season. CJ Carr improved after a scratchy first half, then went 16 of 20 for 253 yards and four touchdowns against Rice as the Irish defense allowed 128 yards and forced four turnovers in a 52-0 win. Jordan Faison led the receivers at Lambeau with 4 catches for 80 yards.

Michigan needed a 47-yard Hail Mary on the final play to beat Western Michigan 13-12, then held Oklahoma to 10 points a week later. Jyaire Hill made the play that decided it, intercepting John Mateer at the Oklahoma 30 midway through the fourth and returning it 24 yards to set up Jordan Marshall's 1-yard go-ahead score. Hill had earlier drawn an unnecessary roughness flag with Oklahoma at the Michigan 2, so the pick was redemption as much as anything. Zeke Berry played with the grit that draws Mike Sainristil comparisons, though his size is why he sits outside our top 100. Utah transfer John Henry Daley flashed a spin and rip repertoire with real burst off the ball, and if he rounds out his run defense the first round is reachable.

Mateer went 17 of 33 for 189 yards with a touchdown and the interception, added 45 rushing yards, sailed several throws high, and missed tight end Rocky Beers on the final drives. The anticipation and consistency questions that dogged him through last season have not gone away, and it is getting hard to map out his path to an NFL starting job.

Risers in the Wider Field

Yhonzae Pierre has been the most consistently disruptive edge in the SEC. He returned an interception 27 yards for a touchdown and added a sack in the opener against East Carolina, then generated 4 pressures in the win at Kentucky. The nonstop motor and speed rush profile has him climbing toward the top 10 on some boards, and he is going to move up from 44th on ours.

Jadan Baugh went for 160 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries against Florida Atlantic, showing power through contact and the burst to finish. He looked like a first-round back, which is a rare thing to say about anybody at that position. KJ Duff, 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, caught 9 passes for 196 yards and three scores against UMass and dominated every 50-50 ball. Charlie Becker followed two touchdowns in the opener with 3 catches for 81 yards and three more scores against Howard. His quarterback, Josh Hoover, has 8 touchdown passes and 376 yards on 27 attempts across six quarters of work for an Indiana team that has outscored opponents 107-17, a pace ahead of what Fernando Mendoza managed on the way to last season's Heisman.

Gunner Stockton tied a Georgia school record with five touchdown passes in a 70-20 win over Western Kentucky, going 13 of 16 for 234 yards and hitting five different receivers as the Bulldogs matched their record for points in a half at 49. Through two games he has 8 touchdowns and 4 incompletions at 13.6 yards per attempt. Kirby Smart's own review was less generous, asking whether anyone expected that against SEC defenses, which is the fair question for a quarterback ranked outside the top 200 on this board. Nate Frazier added 55 yards and a touchdown.

Trinidad Chambliss went 23 of 26 for 225 yards and two scores against Charlotte, DeSean Bishop ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries at Georgia Tech, Jayden Maiava has 896 passing yards through USC's first three games, and Kevin Jennings threw for 337 yards and five touchdowns against UC Davis.

Injuries That Change the Board

South Carolina has been without both of its headline prospects. Dylan Stewart, the No. 15 player on our board, has not played because of a back injury that dates to midway through last season, and left tackle Jacarrius Peak has been out since hurting his knee playing basketball at a team bonding event in February. Both practised in full pads last week and Shane Beamer has targeted the September 19 SEC opener against Mississippi State for their returns. Stewart has no tape from 2026 yet, and the back is a medical flag that will follow him to Indianapolis. Tennessee safety Edrees Farooq is done for the year with a torn patella tendon.

The takeaway from a fortnight of football is that the top of the 2027 class is no longer a settled two-man quarterback debate with a receiver behind them. Smith is as close to a lock as this process allows. Manning has a signature comeback and a first-half problem. Moore has a bad loss on his file and Mensah has the best tape of anybody. Mestemaker answered the Tulsa tape and looks every bit the mid-first-round pick we had him as in August. Everything else is going to be decided across the next 12 weeks, starting with Stewart's return and whether Oregon's quarterback can answer what happened in Stillwater.