Patriots draft well, but prediction markets still aren’t convinced of Super Bowl return

The Patriots used the draft to bolster the offensive line that faltered so badly in the 29-13 defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. They took Utah tackle Caleb Lomu with the 28th pick, and Dametrious Crownover in the sixth round, alongside adding free agent Alijah Vera-Tucker on a three-year, $42 million deal. 

The Patriots will get an immediate chance of revenge too, opening the season in a Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks on Wednesday 9th September. However, this may be as close to the Super Bowl as the team will get. 

One way of examining how the Pats might perform this season is by looking at prediction markets. These allow backers to buy and sell options on outcomes of popular culture, politics, and sports events. You can read a thorough review of Kalshi, one of the top prediction market sites, here. 

Unfortunately for Pats fans, prediction sites agree that it’ll be hard for the team to bounce straight back into Super Bowl contention. 

Super Bowl rerun not on the cards

Everyone knew that Mike Vrabel would turn the Pats around, but even the most optimistic fans were surprised by just how fast the change came. New England were shock AFC East winners, finishing two games clear of the favored Buffalo Bills, and made it all the way to the Super Bowl on the back of a 14-3 regular season, playoff wins over the Chargers and Texans, and a 10-7 AFC Championship Game victory in snowy Denver.

The prediction markets aren't confident of the Patriots making a winning return to the Super Bowl, though. They are currently on a 5% chance to win Super Bowl LXI, around the same as the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Dallas Cowboys.

The Los Angeles Rams are the early favorites, with the markets giving them around a 17% chance. The Seattle Seahawks are the second picks, with a repeat being predicted at 8%, while the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are joint third at 7%.

Although the markets may not think that the Pats can go one better this year, they're still confident that there'll be playoff football in New England.

Wins and playoffs still likely

The Bills are the favorites for the AFC East at 58%, with the Patriots trailing at a 38% chance. Realistically, though, neither the Miami Dolphins nor New York Jets will challenge this season, meaning it'll be a straight fight between the Bills and Pats. As with last season, a good run of results can be enough to swing a two horse race.

Even if the Pats miss out on the division title, they're still expected to make the playoffs. The prediction markets give New England around a 61% chance of making the postseason, meaning they're considered more likely than not to be playing playoff football.

The Pats should expect another double-digit win season. The prediction markets give them a 56% chance of a 10+ win year, and a 44% chance of 11+ wins. Things start to look tougher for a 12+ win season, though, with the chances dropping to 38%.

Last season, 11-6 was good enough for the Los Angeles Chargers to collect the 7th seed in the AFC, while the Green Bay Packers were in the same spot in the NFC at 9-7-1. No matter what happens, the prediction markets are saying that the Pats should at least make the playoffs, even if another Super Bowl run is a stretch.

As last season proved, though, anything is possible from there, and the Patriots will get their first chance to prove it on September 9 in Seattle.

Please note that percentages are correct at the time of publication, and subject to change.