TEN @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
9
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TEN14%9
JAX86%24
24
JAX Jaguars

Projected Team Stats

TEN
JAX
14% Win Probability 86%
205 Total Yards 368
160 Passing Yards 250
45 Rushing Yards 118
1.4 Sacks 3.4
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward185 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard23 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.1 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence237 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten67 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Parker Washington4.3 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 14.4

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 14.4 and winning 86% of 50 sims (projected 24-9).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Jarrian Jones (Jaguars) - winner: Jarrian Jones, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Bhayshul Tuten, 5.0 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 64% of routes for 5.7/7.3, 61 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.9 sacks a game — Josh Hines-Allen (3.5 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 51% of reps for 2.9 sacks a game, John Franklin-Myers (0.7 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars' aerial attack runs through Parker Washington (61 yds a game, open on 64% of routes).
  • Look for Carnell Tate to eat: 4.6 catches and 28 yds a game for the Titans.
  • In coverage, Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) travels and erases — only 29% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 67 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Titans hand it to Tony Pollard early and often, 10 carries for 23 yds a game at 2.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

JAX by 14.4 (86% to win) Projected total 33 pts Trevor Lawrence ~237 pass yds (250+ 36%) Bhayshul Tuten ~67 rush yds (70+ 36%) Parker Washington ~72 rec yds, 4.3 rec (70+ 48%)