TEN @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
13
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TEN10%13
CIN90%29
29
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

TEN
CIN
10% Win Probability 90%
259 Total Yards 391
200 Passing Yards 328
58 Rushing Yards 63
1.3 Sacks 3.6
1.5 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward226 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard27 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate6.1 rec, 73 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.2 rec, 47 yds, 0.1 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow298 pass yds, 2.1 TD
RUSH Chase Brown35 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase5.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD

Bengals by 15.8

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 90% of them, by 15.8 on average (29-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Tacario Davis (Bengals) - winner: Tacario Davis, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Owen Pappoe, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 64% of routes for 8.5/9.7, 73 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 62% of routes for 6.6/7.9, 64 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Bengals — a 52% win rate yields only 7.3 sacks and 35.6 pressures a game, led by Boye Mafe (3.1 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game).
  • The Titans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 2.8 sacks a game (Jeffery Simmons (2.2 sacks, 0.3 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase headlines the Bengals' receiving corps — 8.5 catches for 73 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 44 yds a game on 46% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against DJ Turner II (Bengals): 42% separation allowed with 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown carries the load for the Bengals, 11 carries for 35 yds a game at 3.2 a carry with tough sledding.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 27 yds a game at 2.8 a carry for the Titans.

Model vs Market

CIN by 15.8 (90% to win) Projected total 42 pts Joe Burrow ~298 pass yds (250+ 70%) Tee Higgins ~82 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 58%)