SF @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
18
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF74%18
LAC26%14
14
LAC Chargers

Projected Team Stats

SF
LAC
74% Win Probability 26%
309 Total Yards 258
213 Passing Yards 162
96 Rushing Yards 96
3.1 Sacks 2.7
1.1 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy227 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Kittle2.9 rec, 35 yds, 0.2 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert183 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton37 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.0 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Quentin Johnston2.7 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD

49ers by 4.5

The model leans 49ers by 4.5, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 18-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 5.5 sacks a game (Nick Bosa (2.8 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The 49ers' quarterback should have time; the Chargers win just 50% of reps for 5.3 sacks a game, Tuli Tuipulotu (2.9 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans headlines the 49ers' receiving corps — 5.5 catches for 51 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Ladd McConkey headlines the Chargers' receiving corps — 4.9 catches for 32 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • In coverage, Dre Greenlaw (49ers) travels and erases — only 40% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey carries the load for the 49ers, 16 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.3 a carry.
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 11 carries for 37 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

SF by 4.5 (74% to win) Projected total 32 pts Brock Purdy ~227 pass yds (250+ 36%) Christian McCaffrey ~52 rush yds (70+ 24%) Mike Evans ~70 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 44%)