SF @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
21
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF42%21
ATL58%23
23
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
Lean ATL +5 +7.2 pts
MARKET SF -5 · O/U 50

Projected Team Stats

SF
ATL
42% Win Probability 58%
352 Total Yards 343
247 Passing Yards 204
105 Rushing Yards 139
1.4 Sacks 2.6
1.0 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy265 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.6 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC George Kittle3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.3 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.205 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson93 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Drake London5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.5 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 2.2

Across 50 simulations, Falcons come out on top 58% of the time by an average of 2.2 (23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 5.9 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Drake London, open on 65% of routes for 8.1/10.4, 66 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Mike Evans, open on 62% of routes for 5.6/7.7, 53 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Falcons — a 50% win rate, 5.4 sacks and 28.8 pressures a game, and Samson Ebukam (1.4 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (2.8 sacks a game), with Nick Bosa (2.1 sacks, 5.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Falcons will live and die with Drake London, who comes open 65% of the time (66 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is Mike Evans' show for the 49ers: 53 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Ji'Ayir Brown (49ers): 44% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Falcons ride Bijan Robinson: 16 carries, 93 yds a game (5.9 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 58 yds a game at 3.6 a carry for the 49ers, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -2.2
Market lineSF -5
Sim total44
Market total50
ATL by 2.2 (58% to win) Projected total 44 pts Brock Purdy ~265 pass yds (250+ 54%) Bijan Robinson ~93 rush yds (70+ 66%) Drake London ~77 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 64%)