SEA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
20
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SEA60%20
SF40%17
17
SF 49ers

Projected Team Stats

SEA
SF
60% Win Probability 40%
304 Total Yards 312
218 Passing Yards 203
86 Rushing Yards 109
3.0 Sacks 2.4
1.4 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold231 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.5 rec, 89 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.1 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey63 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans5.0 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Christian McCaffrey4.0 rec, 35 yds, 0.1 TD

Seahawks by 2.4

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 2.4 (20-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Fred Warner, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 7.8/10.6, 73 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 50% win rate yields only 5.6 sacks and 28.5 pressures a game, DeMarcus Lawrence (2.1 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.8 sacks a game — Nick Bosa (2.9 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the go-to for the Seahawks, separating on 64% of routes for 73 yds a game.
  • Expect the 49ers to feed Mike Evans: 6.6 catches for 53 yds a game, open 51% of the time.
  • Julian Love (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 38% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson carries the load for the Seahawks, 14 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle with tough sledding.
  • The 49ers hand it to Christian McCaffrey early and often, 16 carries for 63 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

SEA by 2.4 (60% to win) Projected total 37 pts Sam Darnold ~231 pass yds (250+ 42%) Christian McCaffrey ~63 rush yds (70+ 36%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~89 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 64%)