SEA @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
SEA Seahawks
19
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SEA64%19
PHI36%16
16
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

SEA
PHI
64% Win Probability 36%
279 Total Yards 276
182 Passing Yards 173
97 Rushing Yards 102
3.8 Sacks 2.3
1.4 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold193 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.8 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.2 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts198 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley52 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.9 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.3 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 2.4

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 2.4-point edge and a 64% win rate over 50 runs (19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Willie Lampkin (Eagles) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 6.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.8 sacks a game), led by DeMarcus Lawrence (2.6 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game).
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 4.9 sacks a game, and Jonathan Greenard (2.9 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 57% of the time (61 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 48 yds a game, open on 50% of routes.
  • In coverage, Julian Love (Seahawks) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson is the workhorse for the Seahawks, churning 44 yds a game at 3.0 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle against a stingy front.
  • Expect a steady diet of Saquon Barkley: 52 yds a game at 4.2 a carry for the Eagles, with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

SEA by 2.4 (64% to win) Projected total 35 pts Jalen Hurts ~198 pass yds (250+ 14%) Saquon Barkley ~52 rush yds (70+ 16%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~77 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 62%)