PIT @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
← Week 7 slate
PIT
PIT
NO
PIT
Steelers
26
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PROJ | |
|---|---|---|
| PIT | 82% | 26 |
| NO | 18% | 15 |
15
NO
Saints
BET VALUE
Lean PIT -2 +8.6 pts
MARKET
PIT -2 · O/U 44
Projected Team Stats
PITNO
82%
Win Probability
18%
396
Total Yards
313
290
Passing Yards
275
106
Rushing Yards
39
2.5
Sacks
1.8
1.2
Turnovers
1.5
Projected Leaders
PIT
PASS
Aaron Rodgers284 pass yds, 2.0 TD
Aaron Rodgers284 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH
Jaylen Warren66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
Jaylen Warren66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC
D.K. Metcalf6.7 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
D.K. Metcalf6.7 rec, 91 yds, 0.6 TD
REC
Roman Wilson4.2 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
Roman Wilson4.2 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
NO
PASS
Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.3 TD
Tyler Shough289 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH
Alvin Kamara15 rush yds
Alvin Kamara15 rush yds
REC
Chris Olave7.7 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD
Chris Olave7.7 rec, 112 yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Devaughn Vele3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
Devaughn Vele3.5 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD
Steelers by 10.6
Steelers are the pick here, favoured by 10.6 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 26-15).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsKeys to the Game
- Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 1.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
- Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kaden Elliss (Saints) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.4 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
- The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.2 sacks a game, and T.J. Watt (1.7 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
- The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.4 sacks a game, and Carl Granderson (0.6 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
- The Steelers lean on D.K. Metcalf, good for 6.5 catches and 55 yds a game while breaking open on 52% of his routes.
- The Saints' aerial attack runs through Chris Olave (97 yds a game, open on 58% of routes).
On the Ground
- Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 66 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.
- Alvin Kamara is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 15 yds a game at 1.7 a carry against a stingy front.
Model vs Market
Sim linePIT -10.6
Market linePIT -2
Sim total41
Market total44
PIT by 10.6 (82% to win) Projected total 41 pts Tyler Shough ~289 pass yds (250+ 74%) Jaylen Warren ~66 rush yds (70+ 34%) Chris Olave ~112 rec yds, 7.7 rec (70+ 82%)