PHI @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
18
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PHI66%18
WAS34%14
14
WAS Commanders

Projected Team Stats

PHI
WAS
66% Win Probability 34%
283 Total Yards 256
190 Passing Yards 161
93 Rushing Yards 95
3.6 Sacks 3.3
1.4 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts210 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley47 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.6 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks2.8 rec, 40 yds, 0.3 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels185 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.9 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.2 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 3.2

Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 66% of the time by an average of 3.2 (18-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 51% of reps for 6.7 sacks a game, Jonathan Greenard (3.9 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 50% win rate, 6.5 sacks and 27.5 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (3.6 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles lean on DeVonta Smith, good for 5.4 catches and 49 yds a game while breaking open on 57% of his routes.
  • The Commanders will live and die with Terry McLaurin, who comes open 44% of the time (36 yds a game).
  • Zack Baun (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 35% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles lean on Saquon Barkley, 11 carries for 47 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 13 carries, 44 yds a game (3.3 a carry), with his best work to the right side.

Model vs Market

PHI by 3.2 (66% to win) Projected total 32 pts Jalen Hurts ~210 pass yds (250+ 20%) Saquon Barkley ~47 rush yds (70+ 18%) DeVonta Smith ~68 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 46%)