PHI @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
20
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PHI36%20
DAL64%23
23
DAL Cowboys

Projected Team Stats

PHI
DAL
36% Win Probability 64%
323 Total Yards 363
222 Passing Yards 262
101 Rushing Yards 101
2.7 Sacks 2.9
0.9 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts239 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 76 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott275 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams62 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 82 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Pickens3.9 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD

Cowboys by 3.4

Across 50 simulations, Cowboys come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 3.4 (23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Greenard (Eagles) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Jonathan Greenard, winning 55% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 9.3 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (Eagles) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 58% of routes for 7.9/9.8, 71 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game (Rashan Gary (3.4 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Cowboys' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 51% of reps for 5.4 sacks a game, Jonathan Greenard (3.5 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 58% of routes for 71 yds a game.
  • DeVonta Smith is the go-to for the Eagles, separating on 51% of routes for 48 yds a game.
  • Few balls get past Zack Baun (Eagles), who yields separation on 34% of routes, adding 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 12 carries, 62 yds a game (5.2 a carry), finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • The Eagles lean on Saquon Barkley, 11 carries for 49 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

DAL by 3.4 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Dak Prescott ~275 pass yds (250+ 66%) Javonte Williams ~62 rush yds (70+ 36%) CeeDee Lamb ~82 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 54%)