NYJ @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
NYJ Jets
17
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYJ54%17
KC46%17
17
KC Chiefs

Projected Team Stats

NYJ
KC
54% Win Probability 46%
299 Total Yards 300
208 Passing Yards 200
91 Rushing Yards 100
2.2 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NYJ
PASS Geno Smith222 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Breece Hall52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Garrett Wilson5.9 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kenyon Sadiq3.4 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes210 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III63 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.1 rec, 61 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.4 rec, 39 yds, 0.3 TD

Chiefs by 0.2

The sim sides with Chiefs: a 0.2-point edge and a 46% win rate over 50 runs (17-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Dane Belton (Jets) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), led by Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.7 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
  • The Jets get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.2 sacks a game), led by Kingsley Enagbare (1.0 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Rashee Rice is the go-to for the Chiefs, separating on 54% of routes for 50 yds a game.
  • The Jets' aerial attack runs through Garrett Wilson (49 yds a game, open on 54% of routes).
  • On the back end, Christian Roland-Wallace (Chiefs) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 40% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kenneth Walker III carries the load for the Chiefs, 12 carries for 63 yds a game at 5.1 a carry, churning to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Jets lean on Breece Hall, 14 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

KC by 0.2 (46% to win) Projected total 34 pts Geno Smith ~222 pass yds (250+ 34%) Kenneth Walker III ~63 rush yds (70+ 32%) Garrett Wilson ~74 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 50%)