NYG @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
NYG Giants
13
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG30%13
PHI70%19
19
PHI Eagles

Projected Team Stats

NYG
PHI
30% Win Probability 70%
270 Total Yards 320
214 Passing Yards 218
56 Rushing Yards 102
3.2 Sacks 1.7
1.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston225 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo34 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts228 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Dontayvion Wicks3.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 6.4

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 6.4 and winning 70% of 50 sims (projected 19-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tariq Woolen (Eagles) - winner: Tariq Woolen, holding him to 2.4 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Malachi Fields (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 27 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 59% of routes for 6.5/7.9, 54 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Eagles — a 50% win rate yields only 3.4 sacks and 14.8 pressures a game, led by Jonathan Greenard (2.7 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Giants — a 50% win rate yields only 7.0 sacks and 30.7 pressures a game, with Abdul Carter (4.2 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Look for DeVonta Smith to eat: 6.5 catches and 54 yds a game for the Eagles.
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 50% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • In coverage, Zack Baun (Eagles) travels and erases — only 40% separation allowed, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Saquon Barkley: 49 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Eagles, finding room to the right side.
  • The Giants lean on Cam Skattebo, 14 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.4 a carry.

Model vs Market

PHI by 6.4 (70% to win) Projected total 32 pts Jalen Hurts ~228 pass yds (250+ 42%) Saquon Barkley ~49 rush yds (70+ 14%) Malik Nabers ~66 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 42%)