NYG @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NYG Giants
20
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG36%20
IND64%23
23
IND Colts

Projected Team Stats

NYG
IND
36% Win Probability 64%
329 Total Yards 359
247 Passing Yards 253
82 Rushing Yards 106
1.3 Sacks 1.6
1.1 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston255 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo50 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers6.3 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Malachi Fields3.1 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones258 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor65 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Josh Downs5.4 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tyler Warren5.2 rec, 56 yds, 0.4 TD

Colts by 2.6

The model leans Colts by 2.6, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 23-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Bernhard Raimann (Colts) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 55% of reps for 2.7 sacks and 7.8 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Adetomiwa Adebawore (Colts) vs Francis Mauigoa (Giants) - winner: Adetomiwa Adebawore, winning 56% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 1.2 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Colts may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.0 sacks a game (JT Tuimoloau (0.6 sacks, 4.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Giants — a 51% win rate, 4.0 sacks and 16.7 pressures a game — Abdul Carter (2.7 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Josh Downs' show for the Colts: 52 yds a game, open on 51% of routes.
  • Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 6.3 catches and 64 yds a game for the Giants.
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (Colts) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 40% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jonathan Taylor carries the load for the Colts, 15 carries for 65 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Cam Skattebo: 50 yds a game at 3.6 a carry for the Giants, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

IND by 2.6 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Daniel Jones ~258 pass yds (250+ 54%) Jonathan Taylor ~65 rush yds (70+ 42%) Malik Nabers ~89 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 66%)