NYG @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

  1. Home
  2. Game Simulator
  3. Matchup Preview
← Week 7 slate
NYG Giants
14
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NYG16%14
HST84%24
24
HST Texans
BET VALUE
MARKET HST -8.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

NYG
HST
16% Win Probability 84%
282 Total Yards 360
235 Passing Yards 279
47 Rushing Yards 81
3.0 Sacks 1.7
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

NYG
PASS Jameis Winston247 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo28 rush yds
REC Malik Nabers5.8 rec, 77 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Isaiah Likely4.2 rec, 49 yds, 0.4 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud278 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH David Montgomery37 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Nico Collins5.7 rec, 88 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Dalton Schultz4.1 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 10.1

Across 50 simulations, Texans come out on top 84% of the time by an average of 10.1 (24-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs Tremon Smith (Texans) - winner: Tremon Smith, holding him to 1.9 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Micah McFadden (Giants) - winner: Micah McFadden, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Nico Collins (Texans) vs Andru Phillips (Giants) - winner: Nico Collins, open on 62% of routes for 7.8/9.9, 76 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Texans — a 51% win rate yields only 4.2 sacks and 16.0 pressures a game, with Will Anderson Jr. (3.4 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Giants win just 52% of reps for 5.5 sacks a game, led by Abdul Carter (3.7 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Nico Collins to eat: 7.8 catches and 76 yds a game for the Texans.
  • The Giants lean on Malik Nabers, good for 6.1 catches and 53 yds a game while breaking open on 50% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Jalen Pitre (Texans), who yields separation on 33% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery carries the load for the Texans, 12 carries for 37 yds a game at 3.0 a carry with tough sledding.
  • The Giants hand it to Cam Skattebo early and often, 15 carries for 28 yds a game at 1.9 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -10.1
Market lineHST -8.5
Sim total38
Market total43.5
HST by 10.1 (84% to win) Projected total 38 pts C.J. Stroud ~278 pass yds (250+ 64%) Nico Collins ~88 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 62%)