NO @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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NO Saints
22
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NO26%22
CIN74%28
28
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

NO
CIN
26% Win Probability 74%
359 Total Yards 422
304 Passing Yards 353
55 Rushing Yards 69
1.7 Sacks 2.3
1.4 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

NO
PASS Tyler Shough321 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH Alvin Kamara23 rush yds
REC Chris Olave8.1 rec, 116 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Devaughn Vele4.1 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow352 pass yds, 2.8 TD
RUSH Chase Brown40 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase7.3 rec, 97 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.5 rec, 81 yds, 0.7 TD

Bengals by 6.6

The model leans Bengals by 6.6, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 28-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Bryan Cook, holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry (Saints) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 65% of routes for 10.6/11.9, 94 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs Quincy Riley (Saints) - winner: Tee Higgins, open on 66% of routes for 6.2/7.5, 65 yds a game - open at will.
  • Chris Olave (Saints) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: Chris Olave, open on 58% of routes for 9.5/12.9, 89 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Bengals — a 51% win rate, 4.7 sacks and 19.2 pressures a game (Boye Mafe (1.4 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.5 sacks a game (Nathan Shepherd (2.5 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Look for Ja'Marr Chase to eat: 10.6 catches and 94 yds a game for the Bengals.
  • The Saints lean on Chris Olave, good for 9.5 catches and 89 yds a game while breaking open on 58% of his routes.
  • Julian Blackmon (Saints) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 41% of routes.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Bengals ride Chase Brown: 11 carries, 40 yds a game (3.6 a carry), with his best work to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Saints ride Alvin Kamara: 10 carries, 23 yds a game (2.3 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

CIN by 6.6 (74% to win) Projected total 50 pts Joe Burrow ~352 pass yds (250+ 92%) Chris Olave ~116 rec yds, 8.1 rec (70+ 94%)