NE @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
NE Patriots
18
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
NE56%18
LAC44%17
17
LAC Chargers

Projected Team Stats

NE
LAC
56% Win Probability 44%
313 Total Yards 276
220 Passing Yards 167
93 Rushing Yards 110
4.1 Sacks 3.2
1.9 Turnovers 1.6

Projected Leaders

NE
PASS Drake Maye238 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Romeo Doubs4.1 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Efton Chism III3.5 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert193 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ladd McConkey4.4 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Tre Harris3.8 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 1.0

Across 50 simulations, Patriots come out on top 56% of the time by an average of 1.0 (18-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quentin Johnston (Chargers) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 20 yds on just 37% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Cole Strange (Chargers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 56% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 7.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (7.0 sacks a game), with Dre'Mont Jones (2.7 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Chargers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 6.6 sacks a game — Tuli Tuipulotu (3.5 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Look for Romeo Doubs to eat: 4.1 catches and 39 yds a game for the Patriots.
  • Look for Ladd McConkey to eat: 4.5 catches and 34 yds a game for the Chargers.
  • On the back end, Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Patriots lean on Rhamondre Stevenson, 12 carries for 44 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of Omarion Hampton: 47 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Chargers, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

NE by 1.0 (56% to win) Projected total 36 pts Drake Maye ~238 pass yds (250+ 42%) Omarion Hampton ~47 rush yds (70+ 12%) Romeo Doubs ~62 rec yds, 4.1 rec (70+ 30%)